Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar remains confident of improving his party’s standing in the upcoming Holyrood election, despite consistently poor polling figures and an uphill battle to challenge the Scottish National Party (SNP). With just two weeks remaining until the May 7 vote, the polls have placed Labour around 20%, suggesting a fight to secure second place rather than victory. Sarwar, however, rejects this narrative, asserting that the polls fail to capture the shifting dynamics on the ground.

Sarwar pointed to a surge in undecided voters, who he said are increasingly leaning towards Labour as postal voting packs begin to arrive. He emphasized that many of Scotland’s pressing social issues—such as long NHS waiting lists, youth homelessness, and the drug death crisis—are driving voters to reconsider their options. “I honestly believe from the conversations we are having that this election is all to play for,” he said, framing Labour as the only party capable of unseating the SNP government led by John Swinney and supported by the Scottish Greens.

The election campaign has seen Scottish Labour invest heavily, marking the largest expenditure in its history. The party has targeted hundreds of thousands of voters with tailored digital advertising across platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram, supported by focus groups, private polling, and data-driven canvassing efforts. Labour’s campaign strategy is focused on winning 38 of the 73 first-past-the-post constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament, though time is running short.

The rise of Reform UK, led by millionaire yachtsman Malcolm Offord, complicates the electoral landscape. Reform is expected to claim 10 or more seats, potentially playing a decisive role in determining the next first minister. A recent televised debate highlighted tensions between Sarwar and Offord, with Offord alleging Sarwar had suggested a post-election deal between Labour and Reform—a claim Sarwar strongly denied. The SNP capitalized on the controversy by running social media ads accusing Labour of covertly courting Reform.

Sarwar expressed particular frustration at John Swinney for amplifying the allegations rather than condemning Reform’s past campaigns, which he described as race-baiting and harmful. “The idea that those who are race-baiting me… are somehow ones that I’m secretly in cahoots with is offensive, idiotic,” Sarwar said, attributing the accusations to SNP desperation amid a challenging electoral environment.

While Sarwar does not rule out forming an anti-SNP alliance with other parties following the election, he stressed that Labour’s primary objective remains outright victory, not reliance on Reform votes, which his advisors view as unlikely given the party’s disruptive approach.

The election also comes against the backdrop of a wider Labour leadership crisis following controversy over Peter Mandelson’s vetting, which has distracted attention from Scottish politics and allowed the SNP to link Scottish Labour to dissatisfaction with UK Labour leader Keir Starmer. Sarwar, who secured 34 of Scotland’s Westminster seats in 2024, publicly called on Starmer to resign earlier this year, distancing himself from UK Labour while focusing on presenting a distinct Scottish Labour identity.

Sarwar concluded by emphasizing that a vote for him is a choice about Scotland’s leadership rather than an endorsement of Westminster Labour. The challenge remains convincing Scottish voters to embrace this vision in an election marked by shifting allegiances and new political contenders.