Tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope reached a record high in mid-April, highlighting a significant shift in global shipping routes amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This change reflects a growing preference among shipping companies and freight clients for the longer, yet perceived safer, passage around southern Africa instead of the more direct Suez Canal and Red Sea route.

Since 2023, ships traveling between Europe and Asia have increasingly diverted around the southern tip of Africa following attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants on vessels passing through the Red Sea. These attacks were reportedly in retaliation for Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Although a ceasefire in Gaza last October led to tentative moves back to the Suez Canal, renewed hostilities—including a war involving the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions across the Gulf—have heightened concerns over shipping security. As a result, shipowners abandoned plans to return to the Red Sea route, fearing additional Houthi attacks, despite those militants having taken little direct action in the current conflict.

Data from Veson Nautical showed that tanker traffic via the Cape of Good Hope hit 24 million deadweight tonnage in the week of April 13, a measure reflecting a ship’s carrying capacity. Bulk cargo shipments, including grain, also peaked slightly below a previous high recorded in July 2024. Freight companies appear willing to accept higher fuel costs associated with the longer voyage around Africa—adding at least two weeks to transit times—in favor of more stable and secure supply chains.

Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of container shipping line Hapag-Lloyd, noted during a recent customer call that although the company made cautious attempts to resume passage through the Suez Canal, such efforts were halted due to the volatile situation in the region. "If you look at everything that is happening, that certainly will not accelerate the return to Suez," he said. Freight rates on the Cape of Good Hope route rose from approximately $2,500 per 40-foot equivalent container (FEU) to about $3,000 in mid-March before settling back to around $2,700 per FEU, according to logistics pricing platform Freightos.

The rerouting has also led to increased activity and refueling operations at southern African ports. Container arrivals across five key ports—Maputo, Durban, Port Elizabeth (Gqeberha), Cape Town, and Walvis Bay—have increased by 21 percent since the first strikes against Iran on February 28. The week of April 6 recorded the highest traffic, with container arrivals rising 71 percent above the pre-conflict weekly average, according to supply chain intelligence firm Project44.

While longer travel distances contribute to higher operational costs, freight customers appear to prioritize the reliability and security of their supply chains amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend suggests the Cape route may remain a critical maritime corridor as regional conflicts continue to impact traditional shipping lanes.