At the start of March 2026, Omar Abaza faced uncertainty about launching the Oppenheim Group’s first office outside North America in Dubai amid escalating regional tensions. The real estate brokerage, known worldwide partly due to Netflix series such as *Selling Sunset* and *Selling the OC*, had invested several million dollars preparing for its Dubai debut when retaliatory strikes on Dubai were triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. This prompted a sudden disruption in a property market that had experienced years of sustained growth.
Abaza, managing partner of Oppenheim Group UAE and a longtime associate of the company’s president Jason Oppenheim, who remains based in Los Angeles, decided to proceed despite the volatile environment. The pair described the geopolitical upheaval as a market "correction" imposed sooner than anticipated, with Oppenheim calling the resulting market adjustment a "blessing in disguise"—a phrase he carefully qualified to avoid suggesting any conflict could be positive. Data from the Dubai Land Department showed that residential sales registrations dropped 21% in March from the previous month and remained 36% below January levels by September. Sale prices, which had fallen sharply in the spring, showed signs of recovering slightly by late summer, suggestive of a "slow burn" market adjustment.
The Oppenheim Group’s entrance into Dubai reflects a strategic calculation anchored in the city’s concentration of high-value transactions. Jason Oppenheim highlighted a disparity between Dubai and Los Angeles’s luxury property markets, noting that while Los Angeles recorded 233 single-family home sales over $5.4 million in the first eight months of 2026, Dubai saw 1,314 residential properties sell for more than 20 million dirhams (approximately $5.45 million) during the same period. This volume, despite the recent conflict-induced downturn, indicated a more substantial opportunity in Dubai’s super-prime market.
However, reactions among industry insiders in Dubai are more cautious. Developer and Mercury Projects CEO Hamed Ghavidel views the conflict as accelerating a correction already in place and serving as a "stress test" for Dubai’s long-held reputation for stability and safety—a cornerstone of its international appeal. He noted that while many expected a significant price collapse akin to the 2009 crisis, this was not the case. Ghavidel suggested that the property market’s resilience and government response have reassured investors.
Meanwhile, Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency for the Middle East at Savills, acknowledged ongoing declines in transaction volumes from peak levels, especially in the off-plan market, where new deals reportedly dropped by 70 to 80%. Despite this, Dubai’s high-end segment retains relative robustness. Property Monitor data showed a 32% drop in sales of homes priced over 20 million dirhams in July and August 2026 compared to the same months in 2025, but those sales still outpaced comparable luxury transactions in Los Angeles.
The Oppenheim Group’s Dubai operation launched in late 2026 with 20 brokers and quickly amassed listings valued at more than 350 million dirhams ($95 million). Abaza described the current market as characterized by a gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness, with many owners under little urgency to sell. He emphasized that many transactions are discretionary rather than need-driven, suggesting prices may settle "somewhere in the middle" over time.
Questions remain about the firm’s ability to capture market share in a competitive environment. Ghavidel cautioned that Dubai needs brokers with proven international track records capable of bringing buyers, especially in the super-prime segment where discretion and established relationships are paramount. He expressed skepticism about high-profile agents who leverage media visibility but fail to produce results. Similarly, Cummings underscored the importance of agents with extensive international networks, citing Charles Cutting, a former Savills Mayfair head of sales now in Dubai, as a model for integrating global contacts.
The Dubai luxury property market also reflects a dual dynamic. Alongside the internationally oriented segment, there exists a more insular Emirati market shaped by longstanding personal relationships and discretion. Abaza acknowledged that winning the trust of Emirati clients involves navigating entrenched social networks that differ significantly from the internationally marketed segment.
Oppenheim remains discreet on plans for a Dubai-based TV series but indicated interest in extending the *Selling Sunset* brand to the city, contingent on production considerations and geopolitical stability. The group’s global platform, bolstered by its media presence, is viewed as a key asset for marketing Dubai properties internationally, particularly in a softer market.
With Dubai’s high-end real estate activity surpassing many established global centers in volume, the Oppenheim Group aims to establish its Dubai office as a leading sales venue within a few years. The success of this venture will depend not only on leveraging brand recognition but also on building trust in a market where local relationships remain central.