Senior Labour ministers are reportedly engaged in covert discussions aimed at challenging Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership following the upcoming Makerfield by-election. A WhatsApp group, dubbed ‘hope amongst the chaos,’ has been identified as a hub where junior ministers are coordinating support for Andy Burnham’s bid to succeed Starmer as party leader and prime minister.

The group, which had been inactive for several years, recently revived amid growing uncertainty over Starmer’s position. Among those involved is James Frith, the minister responsible for the digital ID system. Although participants in the group have not publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, the emergence of the chat has stirred concern among Labour whips, who view it as a potential power base preparing for a leadership challenge.

Supporters of Burnham are encouraged by recent polling that shows the Manchester mayor leading his Reform UK opponent, Robert Kenyon, in the northern constituency. Should Burnham win Thursday’s contest as anticipated, his backers have signaled plans to initiate a formal leadership contest. The group aims to mobilize over 100 Labour MPs to demand that Starmer set a timetable for his departure, alongside circulating a letter seeking the 81 backbench signatures needed to trigger a leadership election.

This effort is expected to coincide with potential ministerial resignations, possibly reaching into the Cabinet. Speculation includes the possible departures of senior figures such as Defence Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Labour insiders suggest that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, and ex-Transport Secretary Louise Haigh could compete for prominent roles should Burnham assume leadership.

Starmer has publicly rejected calls to step down, pledging to contest any attempt to unseat him. Following the resignations last week of John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns—who objected to Labour’s defense investment plans—Starmer cautioned against plunging the country into the turmoil of a leadership election. Still, his inner circle acknowledges that coordinated high-level resignations could severely undermine his position.

Observers note parallels with the Conservative Party, where collective junior minister resignations contributed to Boris Johnson’s downfall. Labour strategists are reportedly seeking to maintain ministerial loyalty to prevent a similar scenario, with Starmer warning that any minister supporting Burnham would forfeit their frontbench role.

The fallout from the Makerfield by-election is poised to trigger a significant political contest within Labour. Burnham plans a victory event to thank supporters if successful, which could serve as a platform for his leadership launch. At the same time, Starmer may respond with a public statement reaffirming his resolve to remain in office.

Sources indicate that dissatisfaction with Starmer extends beyond Burnham’s faction. A growing segment of the Parliamentary Labour Party reportedly believes a leadership change is necessary, with some members poised to either mount their own leadership bids or align themselves with alternative candidates. The coming days could therefore mark a critical juncture for Labour’s leadership and future direction.