The Parti Québécois (PQ) secured a significant electoral gain in Quebec’s provincial election on Monday, increasing its seat count by 56 and more than doubling its vote share since 2022. This marks the party’s return to power after 14 years. However, the PQ fell five seats short of a majority in the National Assembly, complicating its pledge to hold a referendum on Quebec’s independence after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in 2028.
Despite the party’s victory, it won with just under 28% of the popular vote, the lowest share recorded for any governing party in Canadian history, according to polling analyst Philippe Fournier. The majority of Quebec voters preferred parties opposed to another sovereignty referendum, reflecting a long-standing provincial reluctance to reignite debates over Quebec’s status within Canada. This sentiment has been reinforced by recent tensions, including trade disputes and tariffs imposed by Trump’s administration.
The PQ’s reduced parliamentary strength also casts doubt on the viability of other key policy objectives, such as abolishing the monarchy’s role in Quebec and extending the province’s stringent language laws to its colleges. Proposals to cut immigration levels have sparked resistance from agricultural and business sectors, presenting further hurdles for the new government.
Adding to the complexity of the political landscape, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney remains the province’s most popular figure, largely due to his opposition to Trump’s policies. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has acknowledged the delicate position of advocating separatism while maintaining a cooperative relationship with Canada. In his victory speech, he pledged to act in "good faith" with the federal government and even addressed supporters in English. Nonetheless, he announced plans to prevent the province’s lieutenant governor, a representative of the British crown, from swearing in his government, signaling potential constitutional tensions ahead.
John Parisella, a former chief of staff to Quebec premiers, noted that the majority of Quebecers do not want another referendum. He attributed this perspective in part to negative associations with Trump’s confrontational stance, underscoring that many Quebecers value their connection to Canada even if it lacks strong emotional ties.
The election also featured significant shifts among Quebec’s other political parties. The opposition Quebec Liberal Party, staunchly federalist and unaffiliated with Carney’s federal Liberals, regained ground in Montreal and the Eastern Townships, securing the role of official opposition. Conversely, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) suffered losses, many of which were picked up by the rising Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ). Founded in 2009 with a populist platform, the PCQ won 19 ridings, including Quebec City, where leader Éric Duhaime won his seat. The party gained traction partly by proposing an underground highway project despite official reports indicating the initiative could cost C$9.3 billion (US$6.5 billion) and offer limited relief for traffic congestion.
Looking beyond Quebec, Canada faces another test of its territorial integrity in mid-October, when Alberta plans a “referendum on a referendum” regarding potential secession. Early polling suggests Albertans share Quebecers’ general reluctance toward separation, regardless of the political leadership they elect.
Overall, while the PQ’s election success revives discussions around Quebec nationalism, the province’s electorate and political dynamics suggest that a new sovereignty referendum remains a distant prospect.