German intelligence officials have warned that Russia’s covert campaign against Europe is intensifying and entering a significantly more hazardous phase, with Moscow reportedly planning attacks on NATO territory at an unprecedented scale since the start of its invasion of Ukraine. The warnings were delivered during a briefing to members of the German parliament on Monday.
Officials attributed the escalation to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s frustration over the stalled progress of his military operations in Ukraine. Germany’s intelligence chiefs affirmed the recent assertion by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy that Putin has ordered Russian military and intelligence forces to target Ukraine’s economy and defensive capabilities aggressively throughout the upcoming winter.
German intelligence services cautioned that Kremlin operatives are willing to accept civilian casualties to disrupt European support for Kyiv by targeting critical infrastructure, transportation networks, military installations, and business operations within European Union countries. This approach is intended to weaken Ukraine indirectly by undermining its allies’ commitment and capabilities.
The heightened threat comes just weeks after German authorities thwarted a botched attempt at Leipzig airport, where Russian agents had allegedly deployed an explosives-laden drone to target a Ukrainian transport aircraft. Leipzig airport, primarily a civilian transport hub, was spared from a potentially devastating attack. Arnan Selen, head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV), characterized this foiled operation as indicative of a larger, more comprehensive threat.
“The transport and communications sector, the defence industry, and military infrastructure are all in the crosshairs,” Selen said. He emphasized that recent arrests in Germany and across Europe have revealed a heightened willingness by Kremlin operatives to inflict significant damage in their operations. While German intelligence is actively taking measures to counter these threats, Selen acknowledged that Moscow has intensified both the scope and sophistication of its espionage and sabotage campaigns.
Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND), identified Germany as Russia’s primary target beyond the battlefield due to its prominent role as the largest European supporter of Ukraine. He warned that the threat posed by Russia was comprehensive and direct.
“There is a growing risk that Russian provocations could escalate into a full-scale conflict with NATO,” Jäger said, cautioning that Germany could be drawn into violent confrontation with Russia. He called for a broader national discussion on deterrence strategies and stressed the importance of conveying to Moscow that Germany is prepared to engage in a comprehensive war if necessary.
Jäger praised the approach of Scandinavian and Baltic countries, which treat the Russian threat as an undisputed reality and respond with pragmatic but firm measures. Meanwhile, NATO’s collective assessment suggests that Russia’s military may not be ready for full-scale conflict with the alliance before 2029, particularly if its forces remain entangled in Ukraine. However, smaller-scale Russian provocations are considered likely in the interim.