Andy Burnham is poised to become the next leader of the Labour Party and is expected to be formally appointed as Prime Minister on July 17, without facing a contested leadership election. His rise to the top of British politics marks an unprecedented path, as he would be the first Prime Minister to assume office without previously serving as Leader of the Opposition or holding one of the traditional great offices of state—Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, or Home Secretary.

Burnham’s political career includes two unsuccessful bids for Labour leadership in 2010 and 2015, the latter ending in a decisive defeat to Jeremy Corbyn. Following this, he left Parliament in 2017 to focus on his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester, where he has built a regional profile, often branding himself “the King of the North.” Despite this visibility, Burnham’s policy positions have drawn criticism for inconsistency and frequent reversals on key issues.

On Brexit, Burnham identifies as a soft-left pro-European who supports the United Kingdom’s membership in unions, including advocating for eventual rejoining of the European Union. However, in the 2024 Makerfield by-election, where the majority of voters backed Leave, he took a more cautious approach, emphasizing a need to move beyond ongoing Brexit debates. This suggests he may maintain Labour’s current strategy prioritizing closer economic ties with the EU without pursuing another referendum.

Welfare policy under Burnham reflects a tension between fiscal concerns and social protections. While critical of government welfare cuts—particularly those affecting disabled people—he has indicated a willingness to reduce social security spending in order to increase defense funding. This stance may face resistance within Labour’s parliamentary ranks.

Fiscal matters and taxation also illustrate a complex outlook. Initially critical of government borrowing on bond markets, Burnham has reversed his position to adhere to fiscal rules amid rising national debt. Analysts anticipate his tenure would bring tax increases, including proposals for a wealth tax, an overhaul of council tax and stamp duty in favor of a land value tax, and higher capital gains taxes aligned with income tax rates. He has floated the idea of a national care levy to help fund social care, a plan estimated by the Health Foundation to generate £17 billion annually by the mid-2030s.

Immigration remains a contentious area, with Burnham’s positions appearing contradictory. He has alternated between supporting benefit access for migrants and opposing it, and between criticizing the Home Secretary’s stringent policies and endorsing tougher enforcement measures, including increased use of detention for migrants without valid claims.

Burnham’s views on trans rights have also shifted. In 2022, he publicly supported trans rights and opposed exclusive single-sex spaces for biological women, but more recently he has expressed support for Supreme Court rulings emphasizing the protection of women’s spaces.

On foreign policy, Burnham has a record of opposing antisemitism and refuses to endorse labeling Israel’s military actions in Gaza as genocide. Still, he called early for a ceasefire in Gaza, a stance that diverged from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s firm backing of Israel.

Defence policy under Burnham remains somewhat undefined. Sources suggest frustration with Starmer’s outgoing administration over defence investment plans, yet specific proposals on balancing increased defence spending with budget cuts have not been detailed.

Regarding pensions, Burnham has pledged to maintain the triple lock, which guarantees annual increases in the state pension based on inflation, earnings growth, or a minimum of 2.5%. This position contrasts with advice from several economic experts close to him who consider the policy financially unsustainable.

Devolution and regional autonomy are among Burnham’s notable priorities. At his Makerfield victory speech, he emphasized transferring greater powers to the North of England and local areas. His plans may include the creation of regional assemblies and devolving control over income tax, though such moves carry potential risks of regional disparities.

Burnham continues to uphold public ownership in sectors such as utilities, aiming to bring water companies under public control, though funding mechanisms for such measures remain unclear. Social causes like support for Waspi women and the Black Lives Matter movement have seen him reverse earlier expressions of support following political backlash.

As Burnham transitions from Greater Manchester mayor to the national stage, questions remain about his readiness to confront the rigorous demands of Prime Ministership, particularly in the face of formidable political adversaries. His record of policy shifts and cautious positions suggests a leadership style focused on balancing competing interests but may lead to intensified scrutiny as he seeks to unify the party and govern the country.