Since the United States lifted its naval blockade on Iran last week, ship traffic has increased cautiously through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global crude oil shipments. This uptick comes amid ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials aiming to bridge significant differences after months of conflict.

The central route through the strait remains heavily mined, compelling vessels to use one of two alternative paths: the southern corridor near the Omani coast or the northern route along the Iranian shoreline. Between Saturday and Monday, maritime data firm Kipler recorded 109 vessels passing through the strait—the highest volume since the war began in late February. However, this figure remains a fraction of the daily average exceeding 130 vessels before hostilities erupted. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) reports a backlog of approximately 500 to 600 ships waiting to transit the area.

Shipping conditions in the region are difficult to monitor fully, as many vessels have been transiting with their tracking transponders turned off. Industry experts and analysts have pieced together the current situation through interviews and ship-tracking data.

A significant portion of the increasing traffic involves Iran-linked tankers transporting crude oil toward Asian markets via the northern route near Larak Island. Industry analysts estimate that at least 12 Iranian crude carriers are en route to Asia. Michelle Wiese Brockmann, a maritime intelligence expert specializing in sanctioned oil flows, remarked that Iran is “well and truly back in business.” Besides Iranian vessels, ships owned by Chinese, Pakistani, and Indian companies have also been observed using the northern corridor.

This resurgence in Iranian oil shipments is expected to grow, especially after the Trump administration announced a temporary lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. For years, Iran has been compelled to sell crude at discounted rates due to sanctions.

Usage of the southern route, patrolled by U.S. naval forces, is also rising. Capt. Tim Hawkins, spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, affirmed that U.S. forces remain present and vigilant to ensure freedom of navigation. Some ships, such as the container vessel MSC Qingdao, have been documented transiting the southern path with their location trackers on, signaling defiance of an Iranian directive issued recently that mandates all traffic to use Iranian waters. Dimitris Ampatzidis, a risk manager at Kipler, noted that many operators are disregarding Iran’s transit restrictions.

Despite these positive signs, the recovery of shipping traffic remains fragile. Experts warn that any Iranian attacks on vessels could lead to an immediate collapse in traffic flow. The IMO announced plans to begin evacuating approximately 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf, many of whom have been unable to leave for over three months.

Risk assessments from the Joint Maritime Information Center currently categorize transit risk through the strait as “moderate,” down from higher levels following the ceasefire and the start of 60 days of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The center advised ships to resume normal navigation while maintaining heightened situational awareness.

Nevertheless, uncertainty persists among shipping companies, particularly regarding navigational routes and the presence of mines. Harry Vafiadis, CEO of Stealth Gas, said his vessels have remained immobilized in the Persian Gulf due to conflicting messages about whether the strait is open or closed. Similarly, Hapag-Lloyd, a German shipping firm with vessels and crew stranded in the region, stated that it will dispatch its ships only when security conditions are deemed safe.

Looking forward, the future of strait access remains unclear beyond the current two-month negotiation window. In a joint announcement, Iran and Oman indicated they were discussing potential transit fees for vessels passing through, underscoring their sovereign rights over territorial waters in the strait. Shipping industry officials have cautioned that imposing such fees could have significant repercussions for global trade, which relies heavily on the principle of free passage through international waterways.