Ships transporting oil and gas from the Middle East are facing increased risks in two key maritime chokepoints, compounding supply disruptions amid ongoing conflict in the region. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait have both seen heightened security concerns, affecting global energy shipments.
The Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the main passage for oil exports from the Persian Gulf, has seen a significant reduction in traffic due to ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran. On Tuesday, only 12 vessels transited the strait, a fraction of pre-conflict levels, with passage split evenly in both directions. Of these, ten ships followed the route designated by Iran, while the remaining two took undetermined paths. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have attacked three tankers it said ignored warnings and entered an "illegal" route, though the precise locations of these strikes were not disclosed.
As tensions persist, Saudi Arabia has shifted much of its crude exports away from the Strait of Hormuz, relying heavily on pipelines that deliver oil to Red Sea ports. From there, tankers typically navigate southward through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical artery linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. However, this route has come under growing threat from the Iranian-backed Houthi militia based in Yemen, which declared a blockade on Saudi ports along the Red Sea on July 20.
Since that announcement, vessel traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has fallen by approximately 20%, according to maritime data firm Windward. The Houthis claim to have targeted a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea off Yemen’s coast on Tuesday, though confirmation of damage remains unclear. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, managed by the Royal Navy, reported "suspicious activity" in the area involving an explosion heard by a ship’s master, but the vessel and crew were confirmed safe.
Despite these threats, some Chinese-flagged vessels have reportedly continued to transit the Bab al-Mandab without incident, broadcasting their nationality clearly. China maintains close diplomatic ties with Iran, which supports the Houthi movement. One Chinese vessel was recorded passing through the strait to the Saudi port of Jeddah with its location transponders active and messages labeled “CHINA SHIP CREW SUEZ” and “CHINA SHIP CREW.”
Insurance premiums for vessels operating in the Red Sea have surged due to increased risk, with some insurers refusing coverage altogether for ships loading cargo at Saudi ports, according to David Smith, an insurance broker with McGill and Partners. While 41 ships transited Bab al-Mandab on Tuesday, an increase over Monday’s 39, analysts caution that higher traffic does not equate to reduced danger. The transponders on four passing vessels were reportedly turned off, a tactic often used to evade detection.
In June, before the Houthis’ renewed threats, the Bab al-Mandab saw 355 crude tankers pass through, a 50% rise from February figures. Any prolonged disruption of this route could significantly undermine efforts to circumvent the bottleneck at Hormuz, especially as traffic through the latter remains limited to less than 10% of prewar volumes.
As fighting continues in the Middle East, maritime routes central to global energy supply chains are becoming increasingly precarious, with risks spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz to other strategically vital waterways.