Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume following a recent peace agreement between the United States and Iran, though experts caution that a full return to pre-conflict levels could take several weeks.

Since the deal was announced on Sunday, only a limited number of vessels have passed through the strategic waterway. Among the first was the Malta-flagged gas tanker Disha, which is en route to India. However, the majority of approximately 500 ships currently stalled in the Persian Gulf are not expected to resume transit until the formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

According to Ana Subasic, a trade-risk analyst at maritime data firm Kpler, initial crossings are projected at about 15 vessels per day. At that pace, it would require roughly 30 days to eliminate the backlog of waiting ships. Subasic added that it could take around eight weeks overall to resolve the various operational and security challenges still affecting navigation through the strait.

Before hostilities disrupted shipping, over 130 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. This narrow passage is a vital corridor responsible for transporting about 20% of the global oil supply. The return to such volume may be delayed further by unresolved issues, including ongoing disagreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding control over the waterway and concerns about the presence of naval mines.

Dimitris Ampatzidis, maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler, noted that the normalization of commercial shipping is expected to be a gradual process. Supporting this view, Matthew Reisner, a senior national security analyst at the Center for Maritime Strategy, explained that vessel operators are likely to await official clearance from both the U.S. Navy and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps before attempting passage through the strait.

As negotiations continue to address security and jurisdictional matters, the pace of shipping activity through this key maritime route is expected to steadily increase but remain constrained in the near term.