Singapore’s natural population growth reached a near-century low in 2025, as the gap between births and deaths narrowed to its smallest margin since 1931. According to data released by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority on July 27, the city-state recorded 3,365 more births than deaths last year, a steep decline from the 22,323 natural increase registered a decade earlier.

Historically, annual births outnumbered deaths by tens of thousands, peaking at over 52,000 in the late 1950s. However, the post-independence period has seen the gap shrink consistently, dropping below 10,000 for the first time in 2022 and further tightening since then. The natural increase figure is crucial for understanding Singapore’s demographic trajectory, as without immigration, the population is projected to decline once deaths surpass births.

The Chinese ethnic group notably recorded more deaths than births in 2025, marking an ongoing demographic shift. There were 3,071 more Chinese deaths than births last year, with 16,902 births compared to 19,973 deaths. This trend began in 2022 and, despite a brief reversal in 2024—traditionally seen as an auspicious year for childbirth—returned to a deficit in 2025. The Malay, Indian, and Other groups continued to see positive natural increases, with the Malays recording 3,006 more births than deaths, Indians 1,199, and Others 2,231.

Experts attribute the negative natural increase among the Chinese primarily to their lower birth rate compared to other ethnic groups. The crude birth rate—the number of births per 1,000 residents—fell for all groups over the past decade but declined most sharply among the Chinese, from 8.6 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2025. Meanwhile, the crude death rate for the Chinese and Malays stood at 6.3 per 1,000, slightly higher than for Indians and Others.

Overall, Singapore saw a record low of 29,864 births across all ethnicities in 2025, an 11.4% decrease from the previous year, while deaths edged up marginally to 26,499. Analysts link the sustained drop in births to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to fewer marriages and consequently fewer women entering childbearing age. At the same time, the country’s aging population, particularly the baby boomer cohort now in their 70s and 80s, has contributed to rising mortality figures.

The demographic shift raises concerns about Singapore’s long-term population growth and economic outlook. Without sufficient births, the country’s resident population could begin shrinking by the early 2040s. In response, the government plans to increase immigration to supplement natural population growth, projecting between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens and around 40,000 permanent residents annually over the next five years, up from recent averages.

The changing population dynamics also have implications for Singapore’s ethnic composition. The Chinese community currently makes up approximately 73.9% of the resident population, followed by Malays at 13.5%, Indians at 9%, and Others at 3.5%. Maintaining a “broad balance” between these groups remains a stated government priority. Experts note that one approach to preserving ethnic proportions may involve granting more permanent residencies and citizenships to individuals of Chinese descent.

Singapore is not alone in confronting these demographic pressures. Similar patterns of declining birth rates and rising deaths have been observed in several countries, including China, Italy, and Japan. These trends pose challenges such as a shrinking workforce, reduced consumer base, and increased caregiving demands, potentially dampening economic growth.

Experts emphasize that immigration policies must be balanced with effective integration strategies to sustain social cohesion, noting that successful integration requires both openness from existing residents and willingness from newcomers to participate in the community.