Ambassador Karim Haggag, Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), delivered a lecture on Monday at Kuwait’s Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah Diplomatic Institute focusing on the evolving armament and security dynamics in the Middle East. His remarks highlighted both global military trends and specific regional challenges amid shifts in technology and political alignments.
Haggag opened by outlining the broader international security context, noting that global military expenditure had increased for the 11th consecutive year in 2025, reaching a record $2.9 trillion—approximately 2.5 percent of global GDP. He attributed this rise primarily to renewed large-scale conventional conflicts among technologically advanced countries, such as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and recent hostilities in the Middle East. Additional factors included growing tensions within U.S.-led alliances and intensified strategic competition among major powers. The increase in military spending, Haggag said, coincides with the erosion of key pillars of the international security architecture, including weakened arms control frameworks, a declining influence of international humanitarian law, concerns about critical supply chains, and diminishing effectiveness of multilateral institutions.
Addressing technological advancements shaping modern warfare, Haggag emphasized the expanded use of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) capable of executing precision strikes deep within enemy territory. He also drew attention to the rising integration of artificial intelligence in military operations, where autonomous weapon systems can, in some cases, select targets with limited human oversight, and AI-driven tools assist in planning and intelligence analysis. Additionally, conventional weaponry developments have increasingly produced effects comparable to strategic arms, altering the traditional balance between offensive and defensive capabilities. These technological trends, Haggag warned, are transforming the nature of conflict by accelerating engagement tempos, blurring the lines between civilian and military targets, and complicating legal and strategic constraints on force use.
Turning to the Middle East, Haggag identified significant shifts including the resurgence of direct state-to-state armed conflict, particularly involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. He noted that regional clashes are increasingly existential in nature, especially with regard to Iran and the Palestinian issue. At the same time, Haggag observed changes in the U.S. role in the region tied to broader geopolitical competition with China and evolving domestic U.S. politics. He highlighted the interconnected nature of conflicts across Iran, the Gulf states, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Syria, and Israel, describing a growing arms race marked by more sophisticated weaponry and military doctrines emphasizing deterrence and pre-emptive action. Military spending in the Middle East reached an estimated $218 billion in 2025, reflecting a 36 percent increase over the previous decade.
To promote regional stability, Haggag called for a comprehensive approach that includes controlling arms races, clarifying threat perceptions and adversaries’ red lines, reducing incentives for pre-emptive military strategies, and instituting effective conflict management and confidence-building mechanisms. He stressed the importance of expanding the knowledge base to better understand complex security interactions and urged the establishment of new arms-control initiatives, risk-reduction instruments, and diplomatic tools aimed at crisis management. Recognizing armament as a multifaceted issue beyond strictly military concerns, Haggag highlighted its political, legal, and ethical dimensions and underscored the role of multilateral diplomacy and United Nations forums in addressing them.
The lecture was part of a broader effort by the Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah Diplomatic Institute to foster dialogue among policymakers, diplomats, and international scholars on sensitive regional issues. Deputy Assistant Foreign Minister Dr. Mubarak Al-Hajri emphasized the necessity for Kuwaiti diplomats to be proficient in understanding military technology alongside politics, linking the seminar to the institute’s mission to prepare diplomatic personnel equipped to analyze and respond to evolving regional and international developments. The event also contributes to Kuwait’s aim to serve as a regional hub for dialogue and knowledge exchange on security and diplomacy.