More than two decades after establishing the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) to address the complexities of Britain’s welfare system, Rt Hon Sir Iain Duncan Smith has issued a stark warning about a growing dependency on benefits that threatens to reverse previous progress in reducing worklessness.

Sir Iain, who served as Conservative Party leader from 2001 to 2003, explained that when he founded the CSJ, the benefit system consisted of 51 different payments that, while providing support, often discouraged recipients from seeking paid employment. He noted that some individuals lost over 90 pence of every additional pound earned due to the benefit tapering system. Early CSJ reports such as *Breakdown Britain* and *Breakthrough Britain* laid the groundwork for reforms that culminated in the introduction of Universal Credit, aimed at simplifying welfare and incentivizing work.

Between 2010 and 2019, Universal Credit contributed to significant reductions in worklessness: the number of children living in households without any employed adult fell by 750,000, youth unemployment was halved, and employment among disabled people increased by one million. These changes also helped reduce welfare expenditure by nearly £28 billion in today’s terms.

Sir Iain highlighted a personal anecdote illustrating the impact of the reforms—a man who was able, for the first time, to buy flowers for his mother with money he earned himself, symbolizing the intended shift from dependence to self-reliance.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this momentum. While Universal Credit managed a substantial increase in demand, the pandemic revealed vulnerabilities in other areas of the welfare system, particularly health-related claims. Sir Iain criticized subsequent government responses, citing weakened conditionality measures and the reduction of in-person assessments, which he said have exacerbated the problem. He also pointed to escalating calls for increased welfare spending without a clear strategy for reform, stressing that delaying action risks undoing years of progress.

In response, Sir Iain has agreed to chair the CSJ’s Welfare 2030 inquiry, aimed at reassessing changes since its initial work and setting priorities for future reform. The inquiry’s first report, *State of Dependency*, is set to be published imminently.

According to data highlighted in the report, over 3,000 neighborhoods in England and Wales now have more than half of their working-age populations claiming out-of-work benefits. These areas collectively encompass nearly 900,000 residents, roughly equivalent to the population of the city of Leeds.

Sir Iain characterized the current welfare system as functioning more as an “economic opiate,” sustaining dependency rather than fostering prosperity. He emphasized that this cycle masks underlying economic stagnation, leaving root causes unaddressed and potentially worsening social conditions.

The Welfare 2030 inquiry and its findings underscore a continued debate over how best to balance social support with incentives for employment in the UK’s evolving welfare landscape.