After six months of conflict with Iran, the United States is reassessing its military presence in the Gulf region amid significant damage to key bases and growing strains on personnel and resources. The USS Abraham Lincoln, the flagship aircraft carrier, has been at sea for 295 consecutive days—marking the second-longest US naval deployment since the Vietnam War—highlighting the toll the conflict has taken on American forces.
The extended deployment has resulted in challenging conditions aboard the carrier, including supply shortages, sanitation issues, and reports of at least one sailor jumping overboard. These hardships stem in part from the early Iranian strikes that disabled the Naval Support Activity (NSA) Bahrain base in Manama, which had provided critical logistics, resupply, and rest facilities for the US 5th Fleet. With NSA Bahrain incapacitated, resupply vessels now must travel five days from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, compounding operational difficulties.
A detailed analysis of satellite imagery conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and other experts reveals extensive damage caused by Iranian attacks to US military infrastructure across the Gulf. The cost of repairs and rebuilding is estimated to range between $4 billion and $9 billion, depending on future decisions regarding base restoration. Among the hardest hit are Camp Arifjan in Kuwait with up to $1 billion in damage; Camp Buehring, also in Kuwait, with an estimated $520 million to $857 million in damage; Ali Al Salem Air Base near the Iraqi border, with up to $787 million in damages; Al Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi at $577 million; and Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US base in the Middle East located in Qatar, with damage costing between $172 million and $466 million. Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia also sustained damage, though specific figures were not detailed.
The failure to adequately defend these facilities has had broader operational consequences. Approximately 25% of the US fleet of MQ-9 Reaper drones—roughly 45 units—have been destroyed or severely damaged either on the ground or when shot down during reconnaissance missions. Some of these losses are attributed to the destruction of regional US radar monitoring stations by Iranian forces, undermining surveillance capabilities.
In response to these challenges, the US Navy quietly relocated the 5th Fleet headquarters from Bahrain to Tampa, Florida—a move that may become permanent. The future of NSA Bahrain remains uncertain as the Pentagon evaluates the strategic value and feasibility of maintaining or rebuilding bases in the Gulf.
This situation has prompted a broader strategic reassessment. A Pentagon review is underway and is expected to lead to a scaled-back US military footprint in the region. This shift aligns with a longer-term strategic pivot from the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific, as well as domestic political trends favoring reduced foreign engagement.
Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s project for Middle East integration and a former National Security Council official, described the reassessment as overdue. She noted that the decision reflects both a reaction to the damage sustained and prevailing isolationist tendencies within elements of the current US administration. While a complete US withdrawal from the Gulf countries is unlikely, she predicted significant downsizing and a transformation in the nature of American military bases over the next five years.