Qantas Airways is set to launch its ambitious Project Sunrise initiative, introducing non-stop flights between Sydney and London Heathrow, followed by a Sydney–New York route, both operated by custom-built Airbus A350-1000ULR aircraft beginning in October 2027. The airline anticipates that these ultra-long-haul services will offer passengers significantly shorter total travel times compared to existing one-stop options, potentially allowing Qantas to command a premium fare.
The project, originally announced in 2017, aims to improve revenue per available seat kilometre by approximately 30 percent over current alternatives. Qantas Chief Executive Vanessa Hudson recently showcased the new aircraft in Toulouse, emphasizing the advanced technology onboard, including a dedicated "wellness zone," and streamlined boarding processes designed to enhance passenger comfort and operational efficiency.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that travelers may be willing to pay a 4.5 to 20 percent premium to save three to four hours on these routes. However, questions remain regarding the demand for the expanded premium seating capacity. The Project Sunrise cabins will allocate 41 percent of seats to premium classes, a significant increase that some experts warn could overestimate travelers’ willingness to upgrade from economy.
“Morgan Stanley analysts highlight a “demand risk” if premium long-haul travel softens in a weaker economic environment or if economy cabins perform better than expected,” the note to investors indicated. Despite these concerns, Qantas hopes that its first-mover advantage and the unique geographical position of Australia and New Zealand will make it difficult for competitors to match its ultra-long-range fleet and service offering. UBS analysts remarked that northern hemisphere carriers may lack comparable route opportunities to justify similar investments.
Market consensus estimates suggest Project Sunrise could deliver an uplift of around A$300 million in international earnings, slightly below Qantas’s own projection of A$400 million. Sales for the new flights are scheduled to commence in February 2025, marking a critical test for the carrier’s significant investment.
Qantas shares have responded modestly to the project’s developments, closing at A$10.13, slightly up from previous levels. Analysts maintain optimistic price targets, with Morgan Stanley valuing the stock at A$10.60 and UBS naming A$11.15 as a target. The airline’s shares reached an all-time high of A$12.62 in August last year, underscoring investor interest in the nationwide carrier’s strategic initiatives.