The UK government faces significant challenges in meeting its target of building 1.5 million homes in England before the next general election, Communities Secretary Angela Rayner has conceded, describing the likelihood as “slim.” The target, set out in the Labour Party’s manifesto, was considered ambitious from the outset, and recent developments suggest that external factors and shifting government priorities may limit progress.

Rayner acknowledged the difficulties during an interview on BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, emphasizing that while the goal remains official policy, it may not be achieved within the intended timeframe. She cited inflationary pressures linked to the ongoing US conflict with Iran as a major factor disrupting construction costs and dampening housebuilders’ willingness to commence new developments, despite reforms intended to boost housing supply.

The government has committed £10 billion to a social and affordable homes programme aimed at increasing housing starts, which rose by 15% last year. However, Rayner indicated that Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s primary focus is on expanding the stock of council houses, signaling a strategic emphasis on social housing over broader increases to the overall housing target.

Burnham recently revised earlier plans to allocate all funds from the decade-long affordable homes programme exclusively to social homes. Instead, the investment will support a mixture of subsidised housing types consistent with Labour’s wider policy framework. The programme is expected to deliver approximately 70,000 homes outside London, with around 60% designated as social rented housing and the remainder comprising shared ownership and sheltered accommodation. London will receive an additional £6 billion, with allocations yet to be determined.

Ministers are also exploring ways to encourage private sector housebuilding, including proposals for local councils to adopt a “default yes” approach to housing developments located within reasonable walking distance of well-connected public transport links such as train and tram stations.

Despite these initiatives, ongoing international economic headwinds and rising construction costs pose significant obstacles to meeting the ambitious housing objectives set by the government. Rayner stressed the importance of maintaining the target as a motivating objective, even if it proves difficult to achieve in full before the next election.