South Africa’s state power utility Eskom is currently producing more electricity than the country demands, marking a significant shift after years of widespread supply shortages. Eskom’s chief executive, Dan Marokane, said the company is entering the winter season with surplus capacity, a first in nearly a decade, which could result in no planned power outages from April through August—a period that typically sees peak electricity demand.

Marokane credited the turnaround to an operational overhaul initiated two years ago, focused on restoring malfunctioning generation units, speeding up maintenance, and improving plant management. These efforts have boosted Eskom’s energy availability—the percentage of its generation capacity ready to produce electricity—from under 50% several years ago to about 65% currently. The utility now reports a system stable enough to operate with a buffer of 2 to 3 gigawatts of surplus capacity on most days to manage risks without escalating minor incidents into system-wide crises.

“This marks a change from undersupply to a scenario where we need to find ways to stimulate demand,” Marokane explained. He noted Eskom’s supply reliability has improved dramatically, moving from consistent availability of around 9% to nearly 100% over the last two years. The country has now gone more than 300 consecutive days without interruptions to electricity supply.

This improvement is seen as a potential turning point for South Africa’s industrial sector, which has been hampered by frequent rolling blackouts for more than a decade. However, some experts urge caution. Chris Hattingh, executive director at the Centre for Risk Analysis consultancy, acknowledged the progress but emphasized it occurred alongside sluggish economic growth of approximately 1% annually and substantial private sector investment in solar energy. He suggested that a return to faster economic growth could test Eskom’s newfound stability.

Despite gains in generation, Eskom continues to face challenges on the distribution side. The utility is advancing plans to assume control over electricity distribution previously managed by municipal authorities, many of which have struggled with revenue collection and maintenance. Marokane said collection efforts in about a dozen municipalities have been ineffective and stressed the need for more secure and “bankable” revenue structures. He indicated that potential solutions could include agreements granting Eskom control over billing and collection, as well as accessing state grants to support financially strained municipalities.

Marokane highlighted that without more predictable revenue streams, Eskom’s current funding model, which relies heavily on capital markets, will remain vulnerable. The utility’s recent operational improvements present a positive development, but long-term financial sustainability and demand stimulation remain critical challenges as South Africa looks to maintain reliable power supply amid evolving economic conditions.