Global food prices rose in September to their highest levels in nearly four years, driven by a combination of logistical challenges and adverse weather conditions, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a range of food commodities, averaged 136.6 points in September, up from a revised 134.0 in August, marking the highest level since November 2022.
The increase is attributed to several factors, including disruptions in key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, as well as concerns about the potential impact of an emerging El Niño weather pattern. These disruptions have affected the transportation and availability of essential food commodities, putting upward pressure on prices.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero highlighted that this combination of trade and climate challenges is intensifying pressures on energy, transport, and food markets. He cautioned that if these conditions persist, consumer food prices, particularly in countries that rely heavily on imports for both food and energy, could see substantial increases.
Sugar prices experienced the largest increase among major food commodities, with the FAO Sugar Price Index rising 6.1 percent in September. This marked the third consecutive monthly increase and pushed international sugar prices to an 18-month high amid adverse weather impacting supply in key producing regions.
Cereal prices also saw significant gains, with the cereal price index rising 5.1 percent in September. Within this category, wheat prices increased by 6.3 percent and maize prices by 5.6 percent. The invasion-related disruptions in Black Sea grain shipments have led buyers to seek alternative sources, while dry weather conditions in parts of North America and below-expected US crop yields have further contributed to the price increases.
Vegetable oil prices edged up by 0.9 percent, largely driven by palm oil amid strong demand and climate-related production risks in Southeast Asia associated with the El Niño pattern. Meanwhile, meat prices dropped 1.1 percent in September, primarily due to lower poultry prices and reduced demand in the European Union following the implementation of new import regulations.
The FAO also noted that higher transport and energy costs linked to the disruptions in major trade routes are amplifying the overall price pressures. These cost increases pose a particular challenge to countries dependent on imported wheat, maize, vegetable oils, and other food commodities, as rising freight and energy expenses raise the cost of delivering food to domestic markets.
Despite the rise in prices, the FAO maintained its forecast for global cereal trade in the 2026-27 period, expecting only a slight decrease of 0.7 percent. This outlook reflects continued constraints on wheat and maize exports, largely due to ongoing shipping difficulties in the Black Sea region.
The situation underscores vulnerabilities in global food supply chains and the potential for further price volatility, especially in regions exposed to weather shocks and reliant on international food imports.