Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and key partners convened in Manila on July 21 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising regional challenges, underscoring the complex geopolitical environment facing Southeast Asia. The meeting took place against the backdrop of renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, inflation, and global economic stability.

The ministers expressed deep concern over recent developments, including Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels declaring a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, a move that threatens to open a new front in the Middle East conflict and disrupt vital energy and trade routes beyond the Gulf. In a statement following a closed-door session, ASEAN officials warned that these events undermine diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the crisis peacefully.

Southeast Asia, a substantial importer of oil with a combined gross domestic product of $3.8 trillion, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global energy supplies. To mitigate potential shocks, ASEAN is advancing plans to implement an oil-sharing mechanism designed to alleviate supply shortages within the bloc.

In addition to addressing the Middle East situation, the ministers were slated to discuss persisting tensions in Myanmar, where a military coup five years ago triggered a protracted civil conflict resulting in an estimated 100,000 deaths. ASEAN’s peace initiatives in Myanmar have stalled, further complicating regional security prospects.

The agenda also included the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, where ASEAN member states and China have struggled for nearly a decade to finalize a code of conduct intended to prevent escalation. Relations between the Philippines and China notably worsened ahead of the meetings after an incident on July 20 near the contested Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine military accused Chinese Coast Guard personnel of striking a Filipino navy officer with a baton, prompting mutual accusations of provocation.

In response to the incident, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. summoned China’s ambassador in Manila on July 21. China, in turn, called in Manila’s envoy in Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi characterized certain actions by Philippine military and police forces as deliberate provocations intended to serve “external forces” and damage bilateral relations. Wang emphasized that the South China Sea issue should not disrupt China-ASEAN ties and expressed willingness to work with the bloc to remove “interfering factors.”

China’s foreign ministry further stated that ASEAN is not the proper forum for bilateral maritime disputes and urged the Philippines, which currently holds ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship, to prioritize regional peace over national political interests.

The United States sharply criticized China’s actions, with the State Department condemning what it described as “dangerous and aggressive” behavior toward lawful Philippine maritime operations. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, attending the ASEAN-led meetings alongside Chinese officials and representatives from India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Britain, and the European Union, underscored America’s commitment to freedom of navigation in the region.

In an opinion piece published in Philippine media upon his arrival, Rubio reaffirmed the U.S. position that the 2016 international arbitral ruling, which invalidated China’s extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea, remains final and binding. Rubio warned that any effort by a power to assert control over these waters through coercion could threaten the sovereignty, security, and economic interests of both ASEAN nations and the United States. China has consistently rejected the ruling, which favored the Philippines.