The South Sydney Rabbitohs are among three teams, alongside Penrith and the New Zealand Warriors, to remain in the NRL’s top eight throughout the entire 2024 regular season. This achievement stands out given the Rabbitohs have yet to record three consecutive wins in the campaign. Only two teams since World War II—the Canberra Raiders in 2002 and Cronulla Sharks in 2019—have reached the finals without enduring a three-game winning streak, with both eliminated in the initial week of the playoffs.
South Sydney last participated in the finals in 2022 and have excelled in the set-restart era (from 2020 onward), winning all five finals against teams other than Penrith. However, their record against the Panthers in this period is less favorable, with just one victory from four encounters.
The Newcastle Knights are entering their fifth finals series in seven years. Historically, the club has struggled to advance past the first week, with only one success: a 30-28 extra-time victory over the Raiders at home in 2023. Winning finals matches on the road has been especially challenging for Newcastle, with only two away wins since their 2001 premiership season. One of these victories took place under coach Wayne Bennett in 2013. The Knights have met South Sydney once in the finals, suffering a 46-20 loss in 2020.
A tightly contested encounter is expected in Saturday’s clash between the New Zealand Warriors and the Dolphins. Their last six meetings have been decided by margins of four points or fewer, including four matches separated by just two points, with both 2024 meetings continuing this trend. Only Newtown versus North Sydney, over a century ago, has featured a longer streak of close contests in premiership history. The Cowboys and Raiders in the mid-2000s matched this sequence during their own string of narrow games.
For the Warriors, a win would mark their first preliminary final appearance on home soil, crucial given they have lost their opening finals match in each of the past five Septembers. In contrast, every other team participating in the 2024 finals, save for the Dolphins, has recorded at least one win in a first-up finals match since the Warriors’ last victory in 2008. The Dolphins aim to emulate the Dragons and Wests Tigers by winning their inaugural finals match and advancing to the grand final in their debut postseason.
Cronulla remains the team with the worst record in week-one finals matches since claiming the 2016 premiership, winning just once in eight attempts—their recent 20-10 victory over the Roosters last season. The North Queensland Cowboys, by contrast, have made the finals three times over the same span, winning their opening final each time, including two extra-time victories over Cronulla in Sydney.
Despite the Sharks’ two finals defeats to the Cowboys, Cronulla has dominated the rivalry overall, winning 16 of 21 meetings in the past decade, marking North Queensland’s poorest head-to-head record in that period. At Sydney venues, Cronulla boasts 12 wins from 14 games against the Cowboys, with only those two finals losses blemishing an otherwise strong record.
North Queensland’s chances of an upset in their upcoming match may hinge on the form of their defense, which has been inconsistent. The Cowboys have conceded 652 points during the season, the highest total ever allowed by a team qualifying for the finals. Their losses have seen an average of 41 points conceded per game, while in victories, that number has dropped to 16 points, underscoring the stark contrast in their defensive performances.