As soybean harvests commence across the US Midwest this month, American farmers are witnessing a notable shift in trade dynamics compared to the previous year, when China—typically the buyer of about half of US soybean exports—suspended imports amid rising trade tensions. This year, ahead of the scheduled meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Washington, China has significantly increased its purchases of American soybeans.

Farmers such as Stan Born, who operates a soybean and corn farm in Illinois and formerly chaired the US Soybean Export Council, expressed cautious relief at the renewed trade activity. Born highlighted that while geopolitical tensions strained the longstanding commercial relationship, the upcoming summit signals a potential restoration of business ties.

Agricultural trade, once a primary instrument of economic rivalry between Washington and Beijing, now appears to offer a comparatively stable platform amid more contentious disagreements involving technology and security issues. According to Hugh Grant-Chapman, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China purchased approximately 15.7 million tonnes of soybeans from the US by early September. Recent weekly volumes have averaged over one million tonnes, contrasting sharply with 2025, when China halted US soybean imports after August in response to the earlier trade war.

This pace positions China well to fulfill its annual commitment to acquire 25 million tonnes of US soybeans through 2028, a key component of trade agreements from prior summit discussions. Both governments appear eager to showcase tangible economic cooperation at the forthcoming meeting, given the challenges in reaching consensus on more complex issues such as artificial intelligence and technology export controls.

In addition to soybeans, the United States exported around $4.6 billion in other agricultural goods to China during the first seven months of the year, according to CSIS data. Although unlikely to meet the $17 billion annual target set during President Trump’s May visit to Beijing, export figures are expected to surpass the full-year total of $6.4 billion recorded in 2025.

Policy analysts see agriculture as one of the few sectors offering viable compromise amid broader US-China tensions. Kang Mengjie of Hutong Research noted that purchases of soybeans, beef, and poultry not only support American farm incomes but also provide the Trump administration with measurable outcomes ahead of midterm elections. Given that farmers and ranchers constitute a core Republican voting bloc, particularly in pivotal states, enhanced export demand could carry significant political implications.

Beef imports remain a sensitive issue following recent tariff reductions by President Trump in an effort to address rising domestic prices, a move that has drawn criticism from US farmers. Increased Chinese buying could ease these tensions by opening additional export channels.

From Beijing’s perspective, agricultural imports represent a relatively low-cost mechanism to stabilize its relationship with Washington. China’s reliance on imported soybeans is substantial; in 2023, approximately 85 percent of its supply was sourced externally, primarily from Brazil, which benefits from lower prices compared to American soybeans. Market factors may prompt Chinese buyers to scale back US purchases once contractual commitments are fulfilled, favoring cheaper alternatives.

Despite the cautious optimism among farmers and experts regarding the potential benefits of the upcoming summit, some remain skeptical about the durability of the renewed trade. Born emphasized that purchasing decisions have often been driven more by political considerations than by market fundamentals, reflecting ongoing uncertainties within the agricultural sector.