China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is advancing toward key modernization milestones as it approaches its centenary in 2027, aiming to build a world-class military by 2049, according to Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy. Zhou discussed China’s military goals and challenges in an interview outlining the country’s defense priorities and geopolitical considerations.
China has set two major benchmarks for its military transformation: achieving significant modernization by the PLA’s 100th anniversary in 2027 and fully modernizing the armed forces by 2035, with the ultimate aim of establishing a world-class military by the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary in 2049. Zhou noted that the definition of “world-class” remains unspecified, but China is widely seen as already ranking second globally behind the United States in military capability. Comparing China to Russia, Zhou highlighted deficiencies in the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine, citing factors such as command, communication, and logistics. By contrast, China’s defense budget is approximately one-quarter that of the United States but nearly double Russia’s, and it maintains the largest active military force and naval fleet.
Zhou emphasized that while some of China’s military developments, such as the commissioning of new aircraft carriers and adoption of electromagnetic launch systems, are highly visible, other critical aspects—like troop morale and combat effectiveness—are difficult to measure in peacetime. He acknowledged that China’s lack of recent combat experience presents challenges for validating new weapons systems, including artificial intelligence applications. However, he argued that the PLA’s demonstrated reliability in missile launches and the performance of Chinese-designed aircraft in Pakistan’s conflicts provide evidence of operational capability.
Regarding internal challenges, Zhou addressed concerns about corruption within the PLA, describing the Chinese government’s anti-corruption efforts as zero tolerance initiatives aimed at strengthening the military. While acknowledging instances of misconduct, he contended that exposing and addressing corruption ultimately improve PLA effectiveness and do not weaken China’s defense capacity.
On the sensitive topic of Taiwan, Zhou stated that China remains committed to peaceful reunification and pointed to recent gestures such as preferential measures offered to Taiwanese visitors as evidence of this approach. He criticized the Taiwanese authorities for restricting cross-strait exchanges, including academic interactions. Zhou also noted conflicting assessments among U.S. officials about the timing and likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, suggesting that Beijing deliberately avoids setting a timeline for reunification, leaving room for continued dialogue or deterrence.
After the May meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump, Zhou predicted heightened difficulties for future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. He outlined possible Chinese responses, including suspending commitments under commercial agreements, imposing wider countermeasures, and intensifying military exercises around Taiwan. Zhou suggested that ongoing arms sales could backfire on the United States by escalating tensions without clear benefits, implying that Washington may eventually reconsider its policy.
China’s long-term focus on incremental and sustained defense investment, aligned with economic growth since the late 1970s, remains central to the country’s military strategy. Though the PLA has yet to be tested in major combat under its current modernization efforts, Chinese officials express confidence that their forces have the capability and resolve to meet their stated objectives.