The Victorian Liberal Party has decided to delay preference negotiations with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party until after the close of candidate nominations next month, as leader Jess Wilson aims to frame the upcoming state election as a direct contest between the Coalition and the Labor Party.
According to multiple Liberal sources speaking on condition of anonymity, preference discussions with all parties will commence following the November 9 deadline for nominations, a timeline described as routine. While the Liberals are expected to place One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens on their how-to-vote cards in most electorates, they retain the option to withhold preferences from candidates whose conduct or views are deemed unacceptable.
The party appears to be considering the recent Nepean by-election in May as a potential model for preference arrangements. In that contest, the Liberals and One Nation mutually ranked each other third on their voting guides, placing them ahead of other candidates thought capable of winning. Additionally, the Liberals may opt to allocate preferences based on the order of candidates on the ballot paper when their candidate secures the top spot.
One Nation national director James Ashby previously stated that his party would rank Labor and the Greens last in preference flows. This stance has fueled scrutiny from Premier Ben Carroll, who has linked Ms. Wilson and the Coalition to a potential alliance with One Nation. Carroll has criticized Wilson’s reluctance to commit to a leaders’ debate alongside himself and One Nation’s Victorian leader, Warren Pickering, suggesting the Liberal leader is avoiding public scrutiny due to a behind-the-scenes preference deal.
“She does not want to debate the leader of One Nation because she is working with him, she is going to do a preference deal with him,” Carroll said. “I am prepared to debate One Nation, I am prepared to debate any leader, unlike the Liberal leader who is playing hide and seek.” The Premier dismissed suggestions that he was elevating One Nation’s political status, pointing to public polls that show the party gaining influence. Carroll described the election as “a battle for the soul of the state.”
In further efforts to challenge One Nation’s platform, Carroll is set to announce on Thursday a policy package aiming to make abortion free across Victoria, underscoring stark differences between Labor and One Nation on reproductive rights. Pickering has expressed support for rolling back the abortion gestation period to about 12 weeks.
While federal Coalition figures have openly criticized One Nation, Wilson and her team have largely refrained from engaging with the party in public, instead emphasizing their policies and Labor’s governance record. A senior Liberal source accused Labor of overstating One Nation’s importance to deflect criticism from its own record. “It suits Labor to talk up One Nation because every day spent talking about Pauline Hanson is a day it doesn’t have to defend its own record,” the source said.
Former Nationals state director Matt Harris warned that focusing on One Nation risks distracting the Coalition from core voter concerns. Harris suggested the party’s appeal in Victoria hinges heavily on Senator Hanson’s personal profile and argued that voters seeking to remove Labor are likely to prefer a stable majority Coalition government over a minority reliant on One Nation. Nevertheless, he acknowledged One Nation could remain a threat in some individual electorates.
Former Liberal strategist Tony Barry praised Wilson’s disciplined campaign approach for positioning her as a credible alternative premier while the federal Coalition continues to grapple with internal tensions around One Nation. Barry noted that Victoria presented less fertile ground for the party and that the prospect of a majority Coalition government was undermining Labor’s efforts to portray the election as a contest dominated by a Liberal-One Nation alliance.
“Jess Wilson is demonstrating to the electorate through sustained performance that she’s the change they want and need,” Barry said, adding that the campaign’s next several weeks would be critical. He also noted that the Coalition is well positioned in seats where it finished among the top two candidates and stands to benefit from preferences flowing from either Labor or One Nation. Wilson’s refusal to speculate publicly on governing with One Nation remains a key element of the Coalition’s strategy to keep voter focus on a choice between the two major parties.