Oil prices surged above $90 a barrel on Monday following a renewed exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran, marking the first such confrontation in a month. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose about 3 percent to $90.49 a barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), increased to around $86 per barrel.

The escalation began when U.S. forces targeted two Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly attempting to disperse sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for global oil supplies. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at U.S. air bases in Jordan, according to Iranian statements, although Jordanian military sources said those missiles were intercepted.

The maritime chokepoint remains a focal point of tension as shipping traffic continues to be disrupted. Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler showed an average of about 15 ships passing daily through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, a steep decline from the approximately 130 vessels per day observed prior to the ongoing conflict in the region. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that around eight million barrels of oil per day are currently exported from the Persian Gulf, though independent assessments suggest actual throughput is lower. For example, TankerTrackers.com estimated that about 5.2 million barrels per day transited the strait on average over the past 28 days, compared to nearly 15 million barrels before hostilities escalated.

Despite calls from the U.S. administration for continued shipping through the strait, attacks on vessels persist. Just days before the latest military exchange, a tanker was struck off the coast of Oman. Since the conflict began, there have been more than 72 reported attacks on ships in the region.

The surge in oil prices coincided with a mixed reaction in global stock markets. The S&P 500 declined by 0.3 percent at Monday’s close, while major Asian indices were varied—Japan and Hong Kong posted losses, whereas South Korea saw slight gains. European stocks also edged lower, with the Stoxx 600 falling about 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.75 percent, continuing near multiyear highs amid signals from Federal Reserve officials of potential interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. remained steady at an average of $4.08 per gallon, about 37 percent higher than before the conflict began. Typically, retail fuel prices respond to crude oil fluctuations with some delay. Refined product prices, including gasoline and diesel, have climbed significantly more than crude oil itself, driven in part by limited exports of refined fuels from the Persian Gulf region. Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimate that crude oil exports have recovered to approximately 80 percent of pre-conflict levels, while refined product exports linger around 40 percent. The firm anticipates refinery operations and exports to return to typical seasonal levels by the second half of next year.

This latest round of military exchanges and their impact on energy markets underscore the ongoing volatility and fragility of supply chains linked to geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf.