Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged significantly following the announcement of a 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, signaling a tentative easing of tensions in the strategically vital waterway. According to maritime data from Signal, the average number of daily ship transits has risen from one to two per day during much of the recent conflict to eight as of July 1, based on a seven-day moving average.
Global container shipping companies have confirmed increased movements in the region. Hapag-Lloyd reported that four vessels previously stranded in the Gulf have now departed, while Maersk stated that two of its ships left the strait last week. The uptick reflects shipowners' growing willingness to navigate the contested waters, balancing the risks of potential attacks against economic pressures and the opportunity presented by elevated freight rates.
Despite the rise in traffic, transit numbers remain well below pre-conflict levels. Before the crisis, the strait saw roughly 135 vessels daily, handling about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has estimated that approximately 80 mines laid in the two main shipping lanes by Iran must be cleared before the corridor can be considered safe for unrestricted transit.
Some vessels continue to operate under challenging conditions. Iranian forces have reportedly struck two ships since signing a recent memorandum of understanding with the United States. Additionally, data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence indicates that the total number of transits—including those by ships disabling their GPS signals ("dark voyages")—reached 258 in the week ending June 28, compared with 41 in the initial week of the crisis in March.
Shipping companies are navigating the strait via two main routes: one controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through a passage designated by Iran, and a secondary southern route that skirts the coast of Oman. The presence of mines and ongoing security concerns complicate navigation, limiting full reopening of the route.
Diplomatic discussions involving U.S., Qatari, and Iranian officials took place in Doha this week, focusing on the status and security of the Strait of Hormuz. However, reports indicate little substantive progress in reopening the waterway entirely.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the shipowners' association Bimco, noted the uncertainty among shipping companies regarding the rise in traffic. He suggested that some operators may be acting out of growing confidence in safety, while others are accepting higher risks to move vessels that have been stranded. Larsen added that the decision ultimately hinges on assessing the security environment against the operational and financial impact of keeping ships locked in the Gulf.
As efforts continue to manage risks and negotiate terms for safer passage, the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of geopolitical and commercial significance, with the potential for conditions to evolve rapidly in either direction.