In 2013, Chicago public officials closed 50 schools simultaneously, marking the largest school closure event in American history. A new study conducted by researchers from the University of Chicago and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has linked these closures to a significant increase in gun violence in nearby neighborhoods. The study found that areas surrounding the vacant school buildings experienced a 10% rise in shootings compared with neighborhoods of similar demographics where schools remained open.

The research team analyzed police data from 2010 to 2019, focusing primarily on communities on Chicago’s South and West sides, where most closures occurred. In addition to increased shootings, these neighborhoods saw rises in weapons violations and firearm-related assaults. The authors suggest that the prolonged vacancy of these school buildings contributed materially to the uptick in firearm violence.

Importantly, the study found no statistically meaningful increase in shootings in neighborhoods where closed schools were repurposed, a key point that aligns with city officials’ promises to convert vacant school properties for community use. However, previous reporting has documented delays and failures in repurposing many of the buildings. Of the 50 schools closed, only about 20 have been reused, while challenges remain in selling or redeveloping others due to a lack of buyer interest and deteriorating conditions.

Thomas Statchen, lead author and a medical student at the University of Chicago, emphasized that schools represent more than educational facilities; they serve as essential community hubs hosting events and providing recreational space. “You’re not just evicting a family, you’re evicting an entire neighborhood,” noted co-author Elizabeth Tung, an associate professor at UChicago.

The findings add to a broader narrative questioning the efficacy of the closures. Academic outcomes for students displaced by the 2013 actions did not improve significantly, and increased funding for absorbing schools was temporary, according to prior investigations. Chicago Public Schools (CPS) continues to face budget constraints, with a projected $732 million deficit for the upcoming school year and ongoing efforts to reduce spending without harming classroom offerings.

The timing of the study is critical as Chicago prepares to elect its first fully elected school board this fall. The issue of school closures and their impact on communities and budgeting remains at the forefront of public concern. While a moratorium on further school closures is set to expire next year, city leaders face pressure to develop comprehensive plans for vacant properties to prevent exacerbating violence and further community disruption.

Mayor Brandon Johnson, who previously opposed closures as a Chicago Teachers Union organizer, has urged state lawmakers to increase education funding to support CPS and other districts facing post-pandemic financial shortfalls. The study underscores that decisions about school closures must consider potential unintended consequences, including increased firearm violence, particularly when closures lead to long-term vacancies without reinvestment strategies.

The researchers caution that school closing decisions are complex and politically sensitive but emphasize the need for careful planning and community investment to mitigate adverse effects in neighborhoods impacted by such changes.