A recent study commissioned during the Biden administration has found that there may be no safe level of alcohol consumption, with mortality and morbidity risks rising at relatively low levels of intake. The research, which analyzed national health survey data along with population, mortality, and morbidity statistics in the United States, estimates that men and women consuming about seven drinks per week face a lifetime risk of alcohol-related death of at least 1 in 1,000. This risk increases significantly as consumption rises, reaching 1 in 100 for those drinking more than 8.5 drinks weekly, and approximately 1 in 25 for those consuming 14 drinks per week—the upper limit for men recommended in the 2020–25 U.S. Dietary Guidelines.

Dr. Timothy Naimi, director of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria and co-author of the study, explained that common perceptions of "moderate" drinking may underestimate the associated risks. He noted that although two drinks per day is often considered socially moderate, it carries a meaningful risk of premature death from alcohol. Moreover, the pattern of drinking significantly affects risk levels. Spreading seven drinks over a week poses a lower health risk compared to consuming the same quantity in a single session, as binge drinking increases the likelihood of injury and engagement in risky behaviors. The study also links binge drinking with higher incidences of diseases such as cancer, liver cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease.

While previous research has suggested potential minor health benefits from low levels of alcohol consumption, the current study challenges this view. After accounting for all alcohol-related conditions, it found no net protective effect at any consumption level. This finding has considerable implications for public health policy, given that alcohol is the most widely used psychoactive substance in the U.S., with over half of American adults reporting alcohol use.

The researchers advocate for revising the U.S. Dietary Guidelines to recommend that adults limit intake to one drink or less per day. The 2020–25 guidelines set limits at two drinks daily for males and one drink daily for females on drinking days. However, these specifications were removed in the 2025–30 guidelines, replaced by broader advice to “consume less alcohol for better overall health” and “limit beverages,” which some experts criticize as vague.

Eun-Young Mun, associate dean for research and innovation at UNT Health Fort Worth, who was not involved in the study, called for more individualized guidance that takes into account a person’s medical history, biology, and drinking habits. William Kerr, director of the National Alcohol Research Center, agreed, noting that factors such as sex, body weight, and other characteristics influence risk profiles and are difficult to integrate into a single policy. Despite this complexity, the study authors emphasize the importance of identifying hazardous consumption levels and providing clear limits to help adults make safer choices regarding alcohol use.