Study Suggests Supermarket Security Overestimates Shoplifting

Sunday, May 31, 2026

A study by the Norwegian School of Economics found that supermarkets frequently overestimate the rate of shoplifting, leading to stricter security measures than necessary. This misperception, especially pronounced among store managers, suggests that adjusting expectations to reflect actual honesty levels could allow for less restrictive policies without increasing theft.

A recent study indicates that supermarkets may be overestimating the prevalence of shoplifting among their customers, leading to heightened security measures that could be unnecessarily restrictive. Researchers from the Norwegian School of Economics found that the average person tends to perceive others as less honest than they actually are, which can drive supermarket managers to implement increasingly stringent controls.

The study, published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, underscores a growing gap between perceived and actual dishonesty. Researchers reported that 63.5 percent of people overestimated the rate of dishonest behavior by at least 5 percentage points, while only 25.4 percent underestimated it. In an experiment where participants could lie anonymously to gain financial benefit, volunteers consistently guessed a higher incidence of dishonesty among others than actually occurred, overestimating by an average of 13.6 percent.

Supermarket managers showed the highest levels of distrust. When asked how often they thought their employees would engage in unethical behavior for small incentives, managers overpredicted such cheating by about 35 percent compared to observed behavior. After being presented with factual data on actual honesty levels, the same managers reportedly reduced their support for restrictive measures, suggesting that perceptions play a significant role in shaping policy.

The research highlights concerns about a growing culture of collective distrust in society, with supermarkets increasingly placing low-value items such as deodorant, toothpaste, and soap behind locked cabinets as a precaution. While these measures aim to deter theft, the study’s authors caution that they may be responding to a problem perceived to be larger than reality.

The authors draw an analogy between honesty and air, noting that while its presence often goes unnoticed, its absence carries serious consequences. The findings suggest that more balanced security strategies might be possible if businesses adjust their expectations to align more closely with actual customer behavior, potentially easing restrictions without increasing losses.