A recent study analyzing the impact of state-level restrictions on gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender minors found no evidence that such policies increase suicide rates among youth. The research, conducted by Do No Harm, leverages data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to assess real-world outcomes in states that have implemented limitations on puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and gender-affirming surgeries for individuals under 18.

Since 2022, 23 states—accounting for nearly half of the nation’s transgender-identifying youth—have enacted various restrictions on these medical interventions. This policy divergence created what the authors describe as a "natural laboratory," allowing comparison between states with and without such treatments available to minors. The study examined trends in suicide rates among adolescents both covered and not covered by these restrictions, controlling for factors such as suicide trends in slightly older young adults who are not subject to these laws, as well as broader national suicide trends.

The findings consistently showed no increase in teen suicide rates associated with states banning or limiting access to gender-affirming care. According to the researchers, if activists’ claims were accurate—that denial of medical affirmation leads to higher suicide risk—then states restricting treatments would exhibit rising suicide rates among transgender minors. However, their analysis revealed no such pattern.

The authors acknowledge that suicidal ideation and attempts are higher among youth who identify as transgender, a fact supported by CDC data indicating 72% of transgender high school students experienced persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness in 2023. They attribute these mental health challenges to underlying issues such as depression and anxiety, which may precede and contribute to gender dysphoria, compounded by validation from medical professionals and social media influences.

Proponents of gender-affirming care argue that affirming a minor’s gender identity through medical treatment can reduce suicide risk and improve mental health outcomes. Their position relies heavily on self-reported survey data, which the study’s authors critique for lacking rigorous scientific standards. The current study emphasizes the importance of using observed suicide data rather than self-reports to assess policy effects.

Do No Harm has made its data and analytic methods publicly available to allow independent verification of their conclusions, responding preemptively to critics who may question their findings due to the organization’s stance opposing transgender medical interventions for minors.

The report challenges the narrative that restrictions on gender-affirming care directly increase suicide risk among transgender youth. It calls for balanced, evidence-based discussion on how best to support young people experiencing gender dysphoria, stressing intellectual honesty and compassion rather than reliance on emotionally charged claims.