Super Typhoon Bavi, which struck the U.S. territory of Rota in the Northern Mariana Islands as a Category 5 storm earlier this week, continues to pose a significant threat to parts of Taiwan and Japan as it moves westward across the Western Pacific. The system maintained near-Category 5 strength as of Wednesday night local time, generating concern over its potential path and impact later this week.

Bavi devastated Rota, an island home to approximately 3,500 residents, delivering wind gusts estimated to exceed 150 mph. The storm caused widespread damage, particularly to wood-frame homes, many of which were heavily damaged or destroyed. Concrete commercial buildings generally withstood the winds better, though many were rendered uninhabitable. U.S. Air Force and Navy personnel were conducting damage assessments and initiating relief operations on the island as of Wednesday.

As of Wednesday night, Bavi was located about 500 miles east-northeast of Manila, with maximum sustained eyewall winds of around 155 mph and frequent gusts. While it was on the verge of regaining Category 5 intensity, forecasters expected the storm to maintain its current strength through Friday. The typhoon benefits from favorable environmental conditions, including a divergence area aloft that facilitates upward air movement, as well as sea surface temperatures between 88 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit—conditions conducive to sustaining a powerful tropical cyclone. Additionally, weak upper-level winds reduce disruptive wind shear that could otherwise weaken the storm, at least until the weekend.

Bavi is forecast to approach the southern Japanese islands of Ishigaki, Taketomi, and Hateruma as a strong Category 4 typhoon. A blocking high-pressure system over the Pacific has suppressed the storm’s northward progress, initially steering it southward. The typhoon is expected to begin turning northward as it circles the western edge of this high-pressure area, but the timing and extent of this turn will determine which areas face the greatest threat.

A faster northward turn could bring Bavi close to, or directly over, the Japanese islands mentioned above. Conversely, if the typhoon delays its turn and continues on a more westerly track, northern Taiwan—particularly the capital city Taipei—could experience severe conditions, including wind gusts over 100 mph if the eyewall moves ashore. This scenario is anticipated around Saturday.

In addition to damaging winds, heavy rainfall is expected, especially in mountainous regions, with totals potentially reaching one to two feet. The storm’s remnants are projected to move into southeastern China early next week, potentially prolonging heavy rain in the region. Authorities in Taiwan and Japan are monitoring the evolving situation closely as preparations continue.