Surge in Voters Who Think Labour Will Win Next Election, Poll Shows

By the Editorial Team · Saturday, October 31, 2026

A recent poll shows that 42 percent of UK voters now expect Labour to win the next general election, nearly doubling since Andy Burnham became party leader 100 days ago. This shift reflects growing confidence in Burnham's leadership and increased support across multiple parties, though analysts caution the trend's durability ahead of the upcoming Budget.

Public perception of Labour’s prospects in the next UK general election has notably improved, according to a recent poll conducted by More in Common. The survey, released shortly after Andy Burnham’s first 100 days as Labour leader, indicates that 42 percent of voters now believe Labour will win, nearly doubling from 23 percent this time last year.

In contrast, those who expect Labour to lose have decreased from 58 percent to 33 percent over the same period. The shift in sentiment includes voters from the Reform Party, with 26 percent now anticipating a Labour victory, up from 11 percent previously.

Louis O’Geran, external affairs manager at More in Common, attributed this change to Mr. Burnham’s influence, stating that just over a year ago, expectations of a Labour win were low despite Keir Starmer’s then-narrow majority. The improvement in outlook under Burnham’s leadership marks a significant turnaround in voter confidence toward the party.

Political analyst and Conservative peer Robert Hayward offered a different perspective, suggesting the shift is driven by two main factors: the decline in confidence toward Keir Starmer as prime minister and a growing favorable view of Burnham among Labour supporters. He expressed some caution, noting that it remains to be seen if this positive trend will persist following the upcoming Budget announcement.

The poll also highlighted party-specific views on Labour’s chances. Among those planning to vote Labour in 2024, 72 percent believe the party will win the next election, which must be held by 2029. Support for Labour’s prospects also extends to 54 percent of Liberal Democrat voters and 39 percent of Conservative voters.

Since succeeding Starmer this summer, Burnham has benefited from what has been termed a “Burnham bounce” in the polls, with Labour now surpassing the Reform Party in some surveys, placing second behind the Conservatives. Additionally, the incumbent prime minister’s consideration of rejoining the European Union is seen as a potential strategy to solidify the coalition that previously granted Labour a substantial 167-seat majority in Parliament.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.