Sweden’s next government remained uncertain as preliminary election results indicated a narrow lead for the centre-left opposition, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, over the incumbent centre-right coalition headed by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. With more than 94% of districts counted, the four opposition parties were projected to hold 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, Sweden’s parliament, compared to 173 seats for the parties supporting the outgoing government. Final results are expected once early votes, including those cast overseas, are fully tallied.

The election marked a setback for the far-right Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party that has moved from the political fringe toward the mainstream in recent years. The party was projected to lose around 11 seats after previously supporting Kristersson’s government externally, which had governed with the Sweden Democrats’ parliamentary backing without giving them cabinet positions. This time, the right-wing coalition had promised the party potential cabinet roles if re-elected.

Despite the opposition’s slim lead, forming a government appears complex. Andersson, whose party lost support but remains a key figure in a left-wing coalition, acknowledged the need to await final results while indicating her bloc’s current advantage. Kristersson also indicated a willingness to explore options based on the final vote count, noting what he described as a “very clear non-socialist majority” or “non-left leaning economic majority” in parliament. He cautioned that the process of government formation might be protracted but emphasized there was no urgency.

The election campaign highlighted divergent positions on immigration, with both blocs maintaining relatively restrictive policies. Since taking office in 2022, Kristersson’s government enacted measures including the abolition of permanent residency for refugees and tightened asylum and welfare rules, driving refugee arrivals to a four-decade low. Analysts suggest that even a centre-left government under Andersson is unlikely to return to the more open migration policies seen during the 2010s, as public concern over immigration levels and crime remains significant.

Sweden, with a population of approximately 10.6 million, is a member of the European Union and the newest member of NATO. Throughout the election, both sides emphasized continuity in Sweden’s pro-Western foreign policy and support for Ukraine amid ongoing tensions in Europe. The close results and fragmented party landscape suggest that government formation negotiations may be complicated, reflecting broader European debates on immigration and political alignment.