Tactical voting could prove decisive in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, with new polling indicating that supporters of the Green Party and Liberal Democrats may back Labour candidate Andy Burnham to prevent a victory by Reform UK. The by-election, scheduled to fill a vacant parliamentary seat in the Makerfield constituency, has seen Labour and Reform UK emerge as the primary contenders.

Recent surveys show a close race, with Reform UK's main right-wing rival, Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, polling at levels similar to Labour's narrow lead. While progressive voters appear willing to consolidate their support behind Burnham, Restore Britain’s supporters are reportedly less willing to transfer their votes to Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, which could affect the overall distribution of right-wing votes.

At the last general election, the combined vote share for the Green Party and Liberal Democrats in Makerfield stood at 11.5%, exceeding the margin by which Labour currently leads in polling. However, results from recent council elections and opinion polls suggest that the level of backing for these parties has diminished for the by-election, potentially increasing the importance of tactical voting.

Dr Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, noted the strategic reasoning behind voter behavior in the constituency. He pointed out that given the dominance of Labour and Reform UK in the current contest, and the low probability of either the Greens or Liberal Democrats capturing the seat, voters aligned with those smaller parties are likely to vote tactically. This, he said, could be the critical factor in determining the outcome.

As the by-election approaches, the extent to which progressive voters unite behind Andy Burnham and whether right-wing votes remain divided between Reform UK and Restore Britain will be closely watched, as these dynamics could ultimately decide the race.