A recent poll of over 8,000 voters suggests that tactical voting could significantly impact the distribution of seats in the next UK general election, potentially reshaping the parliamentary landscape. The research, conducted by Survation and the activist group 38 Degrees during Andy Burnham’s first month as prime minister, indicates that Labour is gaining ground among left-leaning voters, which could narrow the path to a majority for the party.

According to a detailed constituency-level model using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), Labour currently stands as the largest party with a projection of 272 seats, equating to 42% of the seats on 28% of the popular vote. Reform UK, which has seen rising support this year, is forecast to become the official opposition with 153 seats, matching its national vote share of 24%. The Conservatives are projected to fall to third place with 85 seats.

The poll highlights that approximately 200 seats are closely contested, decided by margins of less than five points. These swing seats could be decisive in the election outcome, particularly if tactical voting becomes widespread. About 18% of voters in these pivotal constituencies expressed willingness to vote tactically—supporting the strongest local candidate among the front-runners—though many have not yet committed to doing so.

If this openness to tactical voting translates into actual voting behavior, the model shows a significant shift away from Reform UK, whose seat count could drop by around 62 seats. Labour’s total would rise to 319, just six seats short of an outright majority, while the Conservatives would also benefit, especially in areas where Reform’s chances decline. Under such a scenario, Reform could fall from second place to fourth in many constituencies, losing ground to both Labour and the Conservatives.

Several specific seats illustrate this dynamic. In Rawmarsh and Conisbrough—previously held by Labour—the probability of a Labour win jumps from 51% to 76% when tactical voting is factored in, despite Reform’s vote share being competitive. In Bassetlaw, Reform’s vote share might increase from 35% to 40%, but the likelihood of Labour winning rises as tactical support consolidates on the left. Meanwhile, Newark, currently represented by a former Conservative MP now aligned with Reform, is expected to revert to Conservative control, with tactical voting potentially pushing the likelihood of a Tory victory to over 99%.

Survation CEO Damian Lyons Lowe noted that while estimating tactical voting is complex, there is a significant portion of the electorate willing to back the strongest candidate in their area rather than their preferred party. This could result in Reform being outnumbered seat-by-seat, despite its growing vote share, as voters coordinate to maximize impact on both sides.

The analysis also highlights a broader trend of left-leaning voters returning to Labour from other progressive parties, such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats, while Reform’s gains appear to come mainly from voters who previously backed the Conservatives. Nonetheless, some limitations remain; in certain Labour-held constituencies, progressive voters are unlikely to switch to the Conservatives even tactically, which complicates predictions.

Overall, the poll underscores the influence tactical voting could have in shaping the next election, with Labour’s prospects improving if voters coalesce strategically and Reform UK’s position becoming more precarious despite sustained support.