Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near standstill amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, reflecting heightened concerns over regional security risks. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted that the cessation of vessel movements in the strategic waterway reveals more about current risk perceptions than public statements from Washington or Tehran.

The developments follow recent exchanges of military strikes and statements from key officials. On Wednesday, former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that a ceasefire appeared to be over but suggested that Iranian leadership had reached out to seek a deal after the latest confrontations. Despite this outreach, Trump expressed skepticism about Iran’s reliability and commitment to any potential agreement, stating, “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honour the deal.”

At the same time, the former president downplayed the risk of a prolonged conflict, asserting that any further escalations would be brief and might ultimately improve security in the region, including for oil shipments. “Anything that happens is going to be over very quickly ... and will only make it safer, including for oil,” he said.

Diplomatic efforts have been temporarily paused following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Talks between the U.S. and Iran were suspended for one week to allow for mourning, as millions of people attended Khamenei’s funeral procession. This interlude adds uncertainty to the prospects for renewed negotiations and de-escalation in the near term.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply transits, has long been a flashpoint in Middle East geopolitics. The current halt in tanker movement underscores growing apprehension among international maritime operators amid fears of military confrontation or further attacks on shipping.

As regional tensions persist, international observers continue to monitor developments closely, weighing the potential impacts on global energy markets and broader geopolitical stability.