Tensions over control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz have escalated amid the recent mourning period following the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The waterway, a critical passage for global oil shipments, has become the focus of intensified military and diplomatic maneuvering as Tehran seeks to maintain and expand its influence.

Over the past weekend, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved to reinforce its control over the strait after weeks of shipping disruptions. Many vessels had circumvented Iranian-controlled northern routes by using a U.S.-supported southern passage near Oman. The IRGC’s recent warnings reportedly compelled several ships to reverse course, leading to a decline in marine traffic through the southern route.

France and the United Kingdom have responded to the situation with plans to dispatch a mine-clearing naval task force intended to secure the southern passage. French President Emmanuel Macron has endorsed this measure, though Iran’s foreign ministry has firmly rejected the proposal.

The disruptions initially sent crude oil prices soaring to $125 per barrel, but prices have since fallen by approximately 40%, retreating toward $75 a barrel. This decline has alleviated some inflationary pressure in Western economies concerned about energy costs.

The developments unfold against the backdrop of a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 between the United States and Iran. The agreement called for Tehran to take all reasonable measures to restore maritime traffic to pre-blockade levels and pledged that Iran would not impose transit fees for 60 days. However, observers note the memorandum lacks binding enforcement mechanisms, largely functioning as a framework rather than a strict accord.

Diplomatic efforts continue, with Oman hosting talks involving Iran, France, and the United Kingdom to discuss future management of the strait. Oman has proposed a model inspired by the Strait of Malacca, which includes charging optional navigational fees in exchange for services such as docking and route guidance. While the International Maritime Organization reportedly supports the concept, some European officials caution that imposing fees may be difficult to justify legally since natural straits like Hormuz are generally exempt from tolls under international maritime law. By contrast, tolls are typically allowed on man-made canals such as the Panama and Suez canals.

A recent controversy surrounding Indonesia’s suggestion to levy tolls on the Strait of Malacca underscores the sensitivity of such proposals and the potential precedent that Iran’s actions could set. Legal experts emphasize that natural straits are not subject to tolls unlike constructed waterways, highlighting the complexity of the issue.

Meanwhile, the 60-day period outlined in the June memorandum is approaching, and both Iran and the United States face pressing decisions about renewing the ceasefire arrangement. U.S. officials acknowledge that negotiations will not resume until after Khamenei’s funeral. Despite the terms of the ceasefire, both parties appear to be bolstering their military positions. The United States is reportedly increasing its presence in Jordan, while Iranian military spokespeople confirm their focus on enhancing combat capabilities during the ceasefire.

An Iranian army representative stated, “We have repeatedly announced that we are using the ceasefire opportunity to enhance our combat capabilities and have not wasted a single moment nor been negligent,” reflecting Tehran's intent to maintain readiness amid the ongoing stalemate.