In the lead-up to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, Iranian state media and officials have openly highlighted rising gas prices in the United States, linking them to President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict between the two countries and its impact on his political standing. Tehran’s semiofficial outlets have cited polls showing growing American voter dissatisfaction with the president’s approach to Iran, while Iranian leaders have mocked the economic pressures facing the United States.

Last month, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps issued an open letter to the American public accusing Trump of falsely assuring citizens that the economy was strong and that prices would soon decrease. Similarly, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, took aim at a surge in U.S. Treasury bond rates, sarcastically referencing 1970s-era economic challenges such as high fuel prices and shortages. These messages underscore Iran’s view that the conflict, initiated by Trump in February, has contributed to domestic political difficulties for the U.S. president, even as Iran’s own economy faces significant strain due to American sanctions and a naval blockade.

Experts and officials suggest that Iranian political and economic pressures may have restrained U.S. military escalation in recent months. Trump has suggested that Tehran is attempting to influence the U.S. elections by fostering instability to ensure a weaker congressional makeup, which he believes could lead to diminished opposition to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iranian threats against Trump have a historical precedent: U.S. intelligence once determined that Tehran prolonged the 1979 hostage crisis to undermine President Jimmy Carter’s reelection bid, which ultimately failed in 1980.

For years, Iranian officials have openly threatened Trump’s life. In March, a federal jury convicted a Pakistani national linked to Iranian intelligence on charges related to planning an assassination attempt inside the United States. Analysts observe that humiliating Trump politically in the U.S. election may be Tehran’s preferred method of retaliation short of direct violent action.

Iran has also demonstrated its capacity to disrupt global energy markets by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and targeting infrastructure in neighboring countries, exerting broader economic pressure on the United States and its allies. This strategic leverage may have contributed to a recent reduction in direct U.S. military strikes against Iran, as Trump appears cautious about escalating conflict in a way that could further raise oil prices and alienate American voters opposed to the war.

Nonetheless, analysts warn that any Iranian confidence could prove short-lived. With two years left in his final presidential term, Trump might feel less constrained by electoral considerations after the midterms. Some experts foresee the possibility of heightened military action against Iran, including attacks on its nuclear facilities, as the U.S. bolsters regional forces, including multiple aircraft carrier groups.

Trump himself has offered mixed signals, at times denying that the elections influence military plans, while at other moments pledging not to strike Iran before the vote. His unpredictability fuels speculation about potential escalations once the electoral process concludes. While some see hope for a diplomatic deal shortly after the midterms, hawkish voices within the U.S. administration anticipate more aggressive measures.

Overall, the period leading up to the November elections is marked by mutual strategic positioning, with Iran leveraging economic grievances in the United States and the U.S. weighing the risks of further military engagement amid domestic political calculations.