Tensions surrounding the strategic Strait of Hormuz have escalated following Iran’s imposition of fees on tankers transiting the vital waterway, raising concerns about sustained global energy price increases and broader economic disruptions. As one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for oil and gas shipments, the strait has become a focal point amid Tehran’s efforts to exert greater control over regional energy flows.

Iran’s recent approach involves charging up to $2 million per tanker passage—a measure reportedly part of Tehran’s broader 10-point peace plan, under which Iran and Oman would be authorized to collect transit fees. Tehran has indicated these revenues would support reconstruction efforts. In practice, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has required vessels to provide detailed cargo information and owner identities before paying tolls, set at roughly $1 per barrel. For typical oil tankers carrying about 2 million barrels, the fee amounts to approximately $2 million per transit, payable in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency. Following payment, IRGC boats escort vessels along a narrowly designated route near Iran’s southern coast.

The new toll system conflicts with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which affords vessels the right to unimpeded transit through international straits like Hormuz. Although around 170 nations and the European Union have ratified UNCLOS, neither Iran nor the United States are parties to the treaty. The U.S. government has explicitly rejected Iran’s claim of authority over the strait. Further complicating the situation are longstanding sanctions imposed on Iran, particularly by the U.S. and the U.K., which inhibit payments to Iranian authorities, especially the IRGC, by Western shipping companies.

Before the crisis, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and gas daily transited the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s de facto blockade has reduced exports by about half, contributing to a significant surge in energy prices. Brent crude prices, which hovered below $70 per barrel last year, have soared to futures market highs exceeding $119 per barrel and physical cargo prices nearing historic peaks around $150 per barrel. Market analysts anticipate that continued supply constraints may keep crude prices elevated above $100 per barrel through much of the year and potentially into 2027.

Economic experts caution that the direct toll may represent only part of the financial impact. Shipping companies are expected to increase freight rates in response to heightened security risks, while insurers may raise premiums for vessels operating in the contested waters. Additionally, seafarers working in the hazardous zone may demand higher compensation. Together, these factors could push up the cost of oil shipments well beyond the toll itself.

An analysis conducted by economists at the Belgian thinktank Bruegel suggests the overall impact of the toll on global oil prices might be modest—raising costs by $0.05 to $0.40 per barrel compared to prewar levels. However, the bulk of the toll’s financial burden would likely fall on Gulf oil producers, potentially amounting to $14 billion annually. Nonetheless, uncertainty persists over the long-term ability of Gulf producers to restore pre-crisis export volumes, owing to infrastructural damage and the complexity of redirecting supply routes.

For Iran, the toll offers both economic and geopolitical benefits. Revenues collected would bolster Iran’s struggling economy, which has been severely impacted by international sanctions and regional instability, contributing to widespread unemployment. Control over the strait would also enable Tehran to normalize its own oil exports, previously curtailed by U.S. port blockades. Iranian officials have acknowledged significant job losses linked to the ongoing conflict.

The imposition of this "Tehran tollbooth" raises broader legal and security concerns. Analysts warn that legitimizing Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as an international passage could undermine global maritime norms and increase the risk of conflict escalation, which, if unchecked, might trigger recessions worldwide. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the United Kingdom, among G7 nations, could face particularly pronounced economic repercussions from prolonged instability in the region.