Tensions between Turkey and Israel have intensified amid a deepening rivalry that analysts warn could further destabilize an already volatile Middle East. The escalating discord reflects divergent strategic ambitions and mounting military posturing by both countries, which are allies of the United States but increasingly at odds in regional affairs.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sharply criticized Israel, labeling it a “terror state” and making inflammatory comparisons between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Adolf Hitler. Erdogan has even hinted at the possibility of Turkish military intervention in Israel, while Netanyahu has responded by calling Erdogan an “antisemitic dictator.” Israeli officials accuse Turkey of supporting terrorism and behaving like an adversary, exemplifying the deteriorating diplomatic climate.
This rivalry has played out most visibly in Syria, where on August 18 Israel conducted an airstrike on an abandoned air base in northern Syria close to the Turkish border. Israeli authorities said the strike aimed to prevent the imminent deployment of Turkish forces, a claim denied by both Turkey and Syria. No casualties were reported in the attack, which drew criticism from Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria and Iraq, who called it an “unnecessary escalation” and urged both countries to prioritize diplomacy over military actions.
Turkey and Israel have a long history of diplomatic and trade relations, with Turkey being the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel in 1948. Despite occasional disputes, relations remained broadly functional for decades. However, two major events in recent years have accelerated their estrangement. The first was Israel’s military response to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which left approximately 1,200 Israelis dead. Turkish officials condemned Israel’s conduct in Gaza, with Erdogan accusing Israeli forces of genocide and expressing support for Hamas, which Israel, the U.S., and others designate as a terrorist group.
The second turning point occurred following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, replaced by Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose ties to Turkey have led Ankara to invest diplomatic and military support in stabilizing Syria. In contrast, Israel has conducted numerous strikes targeting Syrian military facilities, citing concerns over cross-border militancy and distrust of the new regime. Israel also occupies parts of southern Syria, claiming the presence prevents security threats. Analysts note the conflicting visions for Syria—Turkey seeks a strong, unified state, while Israel favors a fragmented and weak Syria to limit threats.
The rivalry has spread beyond Syria. In the Horn of Africa, Turkey maintains close ties with Somalia and a significant military presence there, while Israel in December became the first nation to recognize Somaliland, a breakaway Somali region, as independent. Erdogan condemned Israel’s move and the normalization agreements Israel has pursued with other Muslim-majority countries through the Abraham Accords. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel’s growing military and energy partnerships with Greece and Cyprus, both involved in territorial disputes with Turkey, have further heightened tensions. Ankara’s recent defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is viewed as an effort to counterbalance Israeli influence.
Despite the sharp rhetoric and strategic posturing, experts suggest that direct military conflict between Turkey and Israel remains unlikely. Ziya Meral, director of Raven Research and Advisory, cautioned that while heightened tensions raise the risk of miscalculation, open warfare is not imminent. Salim Cevik, a visiting fellow at the Center for Applied Turkish Studies in Berlin, echoed this view, describing Israel as “more valuable as a turkey to Erdogan than an enemy,” implying political motivations underpin much of the antagonism.
Efforts by U.S. officials to restore dialogue between the two governments are ongoing, particularly following Israel’s recent airstrike and Turkey’s announcement seeking the arrest of Netanyahu via Interpol on charges related to alleged human rights abuses. Some Israeli analysts interpret the strike as part of Netanyahu’s strategy to bolster national security credentials ahead of elections scheduled for October.
As Turkey and Israel navigate these complex dynamics, their rivalry underscores the broader regional contest for influence in the Middle East, with implications for stability in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and beyond.