On August 31, 2023, former Israeli counterterrorism adviser Yigal Carmon issued a public warning about the possibility of war in the coming months, highlighting signs that suggested escalating tensions in the region. The warning, published on the website of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), was titled “Signs of Possible War in September-October.” Despite Carmon’s efforts, the alert did not generate significant concern within the Israeli government or among officials in Washington, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Carmon has since expanded on his initial assessment, presenting additional evidence to support his view that a conflict was imminent. Among the indicators he cites is a large-scale Hamas military drill in Gaza in September 2023, which he considers a clear signal of preparation for hostilities. Carmon criticizes Israeli leadership, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration, for underestimating the threat posed by Hamas.

He argues that decision-makers in Jerusalem were overly reliant on economic factors, believing that the inflow of cash from Qatar would maintain stability by fostering economic growth within Gaza. “I was alone,” Carmon said in reference to his warnings nearly three years prior. “Our government was living in its dreams.” This perspective suggests a disconnect between intelligence assessments and the policy decisions pursued by the Israeli government ahead of the October 2023 outbreak of violence.

The report underscores a failure to heed early signals that might have prompted more robust countermeasures before the outbreak of hostilities. While Carmon’s conclusions emphasize missed opportunities to prevent escalation, Israeli officials have not publicly commented on the specific claims regarding intelligence and policy missteps. The broader debate reflects ongoing challenges in accurately anticipating and responding to the evolving security dynamics in Gaza and the wider region.