The number of individuals referred to the UK government’s counter-radicalisation programme Prevent reached a record high in the year to September 2025, with a significant proportion of referrals involving children under 16, including nearly 400 under the age of 10. Government data released this week shows that 10,293 referrals were made concerning 9,957 people during this period, marking a 39% increase from the previous year.

Children aged 11 to 15 represented the largest age group referred, accounting for 3,655 cases. The youngest group recorded included 393 children aged 10 or under. Officials and security experts have expressed concern about the growing presence of minors in terrorism investigations, attributing the trend in part to extensive exposure to extremist content and violent propaganda online. This exposure is feared to be desensitising children and normalising violent behaviour.

The increase in referrals follows the July 2024 Southport attack, where 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana killed three young girls at a dance class. Rudakubana had been referred to Prevent three times between 2019 and 2021 due to his interest in terrorist attacks and school shootings, but his case was repeatedly closed as he was viewed as lacking a clear ideological motivation. His case and others have raised questions about Prevent’s ability to address emerging threats relating to fascination with extreme violence beyond traditional ideological categories.

Analysis of the referral data shows that 20% (2,103 referrals) were linked to concerns over extreme right-wing ideology, up sharply from 1,480 the previous year. In contrast, referrals related to Islamist extremism declined to 860 from 945, representing 8% of the total. However, some officials and opposition figures criticise this decrease, arguing that Prevent is underemphasising Islamist extremism despite it remaining the deadliest terror threat. Roughly three-quarters of MI5 counter-terrorism investigations still focus on Islamist plots.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp accused the programme of ignoring Islamist extremism, describing this as a “national security failure” that puts the public at risk. He highlighted that Islamist terror has caused the vast majority of terror-related murders in the last 25 years but comprises only a small portion of Prevent referrals. Reform Party’s Zia Yusuf echoed concerns, calling Prevent “totally unfit” and suggesting it has effectively become a social work programme rather than an effective counter-terror tool.

Over half of referrals were for cases where no specific ideology was identified. The Home Office introduced a new category for referrals related to fascination with extreme violence or mass casualty attacks, which represented 8% of the total. Other smaller categories included incel-related extremism and left-wing extremism.

Officials stressed that Prevent remains a vital component of national security and cited steps to reform the programme following reviews triggered by high-profile cases like Rudakubana’s. Security Minister Dan Jarvis said the record referral numbers highlight the ongoing challenge of protecting the public from evolving terrorist threats. Meanwhile, Tim Jacques, the government’s independent Prevent commissioner, expressed concern that the increase in referrals without clear ideological links risks overwhelming the system and missing genuine threats. He also raised alarms over funding cuts to the programme, emphasizing the need for Prevent to adapt to current risks.

The Home Office described the threat from terrorism in the UK as “enduring and evolving,” maintaining the national threat level at severe, indicating that a terrorist attack is highly likely. The data and subsequent debate underscore ongoing tensions between the scope and effectiveness of the Prevent programme as it confronts a complex and changing security landscape.