With less than two weeks remaining before the midterm elections, Texas Democrats are positioned to potentially flip two key congressional districts that President Donald Trump carried by 10 percentage points in 2024, according to a recent poll by The Washington Post and Schar School. The findings suggest shifting voter sentiments amid concerns over the cost of living and immigration policies in South Texas, challenging previously drawn Republican-favored district lines.

The closely watched 35th Congressional District, which encompasses suburbs and exurbs south and east of San Antonio, was widely expected to remain Republican after the state legislature, controlled by the GOP, redrew its boundaries earlier this year. However, the new poll indicates a tight race between Republican newcomer Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia, also a political newcomer. Both candidates are vying for a district long considered a GOP stronghold due to redistricting designed to consolidate Republican support.

Political analyst Larry Sabato recently reclassified the 35th District from likely Republican to a toss-up race, aligning with the Cook Political Report's similar adjustment. Democrats had been less aggressive in investing resources there, based on earlier assumptions that the GOP's redistricting had sealed the district’s fate.

In the adjacent 34th District along the Gulf Coast—from Corpus Christi to the Rio Grande Valley—Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez holds a modest lead, polling at 50 percent compared with Republican Eric Flores at 43 percent, within a 5.4 percentage point margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates this seat as leaning Democratic. Flores, considered one of the Republican Party’s rising Latino conservatives, faces an uphill battle as the district’s Hispanic voters, who constitute about two-thirds of the electorate, tighten their support behind Gonzalez. Trump plans to hold a campaign rally in Corpus Christi ahead of the election.

These developments mark a significant shift since earlier polls showed a closer or Republican-favoring race in these districts. Notably, a sizeable portion of Trump’s 2024 voters in these areas now disapprove of his job performance: 19 percent in the 34th District and 24 percent in the 35th, even as the president’s approval ratings in these districts remain marginally higher than the national average.

The poll also revealed economic concerns are the foremost issue for voters across both districts. Nearly half of respondents identified the cost of living—encompassing high gas prices and mortgage rates—as their top priority, overshadowing immigration, which ranked second. Economic anxiety appears to be driving some voters to shift away from the GOP, as about half of those surveyed reported being financially worse off than when Trump took office.

Hispanic voter preferences provide a crucial lens on these races. In the 34th District, Gonzalez leads Flores by seven points among Hispanic likely voters, although this margin is narrower than Democratic advantages among Hispanics nationally. Conversely, the 35th District’s Hispanic voters slightly favor the Republican candidate, De La Cruz, reflecting a more competitive environment that defies simple partisan trends.

Texas Republicans redrew legislative maps anticipating continued Hispanic support aligned with Trump’s 2024 results, but the current polling suggests those assumptions may have faltered. Independent voters in both districts also lean slightly toward Democratic control of the U.S. House.

On the Senate front, Democratic nominee James Talarico holds leads over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in both districts, polling at 54-41 percent in the 34th and 56-40 percent in the 35th. This is notable given that no Democrat has won a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.

Republican Eric Flores acknowledged the competitiveness of his race in an interview, noting that voter turnout patterns in midterms tend to favor Republicans but cautioned that victories are not guaranteed for either party. Flores defended redistricting as creating more competitive, rather than purely Republican-leaning, districts.

Meanwhile, Gonzalez attributed the GOP’s struggles to Trump’s waning popularity among Latino voters near the border, suggesting that redistricting underestimated shifting voter sentiments. Former Representative Henry Cuellar, who once represented parts of the now-redrawn 35th District, expressed optimism about Garcia’s chances, stating that a Democratic victory there is achievable despite initial skepticism.

As election day approaches, these races will be key indicators of whether Democrats can capitalize on demographic changes and economic concerns to make inroads in a traditionally Republican state.