Japan is undertaking a series of visits to China by lawmakers and business groups in an effort to ease strained bilateral relations ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for November in Shenzhen. Despite these diplomatic overtures, analysts caution that progress is unlikely without a clear and direct signal of reconciliation from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet.

Relations between Japan and China deteriorated sharply late last year after Prime Minister Takaichi described a potential Taiwan contingency as a “survival-threatening situation” that could justify Japan’s exercise of collective self-defense. This comment has been a significant source of tension, given China’s firm stance that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory to be unified by force if necessary. While most countries, including Japan and the United States, do not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent state, Beijing views such remarks as deeply provocative.

This week, an eight-member cross-party delegation of junior Japanese lawmakers led by Liberal Democratic Party member Masahiro Takamura is visiting Beijing. In the coming months, additional trips are planned by major business organizations, including Keidanren—the largest business lobby in Japan—and the Osaka-based Kansai Economic Federation. Later this month, former foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya will lead a high-profile delegation from the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade, which aims to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Experts emphasize that these initiatives alone may not be sufficient to thaw relations. Rintaro Nishimura, senior associate at The Asia Group, noted that Beijing is likely awaiting a strong and unambiguous gesture from Japan’s top leadership before moving forward. “These efforts are not going to lead to much unless there is a clear message from the very top,” he said, referencing Takaichi or her cabinet. “Delegations seem to be trying to create an opening, but Beijing distinguishes between the Japanese government and other actors.”

Chinese officials have underscored the importance of addressing historical grievances and Taiwan-related issues as prerequisites for improving ties. In late August, Japanese lawmakers met with Lu Kang, vice minister of the Communist Party’s International Department, who urged Tokyo to take “concrete actions” aligned with the one-China principle. Lu’s statement highlighted Beijing’s expectation that Japanese politicians press their government to handle historical and Taiwan issues “honestly and faithfully.”

While such visits maintain communication channels, political experts remain skeptical about their impact given the current diplomatic freeze. Wang Guangtao, deputy director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Fudan University, described Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks as “erroneous” and questioned whether these delegations have been fully endorsed by Tokyo’s leadership. He also noted uncertainty over whether Takaichi desires these engagements ahead of the APEC summit, where a meeting between her and Xi Jinping is anticipated but not guaranteed.

Toru Horiuchi, a China-Japan relations scholar at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, observed that smaller business delegations and the absence of meetings with high-level Chinese leadership highlight the limitations of current talks. He identified the upcoming delegation led by Iwaya, who is considered more China-friendly, as a potential indicator of Beijing’s willingness to increase political contact.

Domestic political considerations further complicate Japan’s China diplomacy. Nishimura highlighted growing public skepticism toward China in Japan, making it politically risky for lawmakers to engage closely with Beijing without appearing overly accommodating. This dynamic constrains the government’s ability to pursue more resolute rapprochement without jeopardizing support within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and among voters.

As November’s APEC summit approaches, Japan’s efforts to repair relations with China via parliamentary and business exchanges are underway, but analysts say meaningful progress depends on higher-level leadership actions and concessions, particularly regarding Taiwan. Without such signals, the diplomatic impasse is expected to persist.