Germany is witnessing a surge in support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party as it positions itself to make significant gains in the upcoming Berlin state election set for Sunday. Following a strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt’s recent state vote, where the AfD increased its share by over 23 percentage points, the party hopes to replicate this momentum in the capital, a city traditionally known for its liberal political climate.
Current polls show the AfD rising rapidly, now polling around 18 percent, placing it third behind The Left party, which leads at approximately 21 percent, and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), hovering just above 20 percent. This represents a sharp turnaround compared with three years ago when the AfD trailed the leaders by nearly 20 percentage points. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), Berlin’s largest party for decades, risks falling to about 12 percent, a marked decline.
Observers attribute the AfD’s improvement in part to a rebranding effort that has softened its public image and rhetoric. While its core issues, including a hard stance on migration and demands for “remigration,” remain unchanged, the party is also focusing on local concerns such as housing, rent, and education. The AfD’s proposal in Berlin includes preferential treatment for native-born citizens in housing allocation and opposition to anti-discrimination, diversity, and gender equality policies. Kristen Brinker, the AfD’s Berlin leader, is noted to have a comparatively moderate public persona relative to the party’s national figures.
The party’s gains are thought to stem from several voter shifts. A portion of CDU supporters disillusioned with party leadership and policy decisions—such as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s circumvention of fiscal rules—have moved toward the AfD. This pattern echoes previous waves of rightward shifts following policy disagreements, notably during Angela Merkel’s refugee intake in the mid-2010s. Some AfD leaders and founders, including Saxony-Anhalt’s successful candidate Ulrich Siegmund, previously belonged to the CDU before moving to the AfD.
Additionally, the AfD has attracted a significant number of young and undecided voters by leveraging social media outreach, as demonstrated in Saxony-Anhalt. The party’s base also includes socially conservative and economically left-leaning voters, alongside hardline elements such as neo-Nazi supporters who have remained loyal since the party’s founding.
Nevertheless, Berlin presents a different electoral landscape from Saxony-Anhalt and other eastern states. The capital’s CDU electorate generally leans less to the right, and opposition parties have historically upheld an informal pact aimed at preventing far-right parties from gaining power. This so-called “firewall” is expected to hold, according to analysts. Moreover, younger voters in Berlin tend to favor left-leaning parties. A recent symbolic “under-16” citywide vote reflected this divide, with The Left and Greens dominating and the AfD receiving less than 6 percent of the youth vote.
Berlin’s unique history as a divided city and its relative economic status contribute to the current political dynamics. Unlike wealthier German cities like Frankfurt or Munich, where AfD support is weak, Berlin’s population includes communities from the former East Germany (GDR), where the party’s backing remains strong. Experts suggest this trend aligns with broader European patterns, where economic and political dissatisfaction has driven segments of urban electorates toward far-right parties.
Anti-AfD demonstrations have occurred in Berlin as the election approaches, highlighting the contentious and polarizing nature of the party’s rise. The outcome of Sunday’s vote will be closely watched as a potential indicator of far-right influence within Germany’s capital and possibly beyond.