India’s strategic autonomy is being challenged by the intensifying artificial intelligence (AI) competition between the United States and China, potentially shifting New Delhi closer to Western technology alliances despite official reluctance to fully align with Washington. This development underscores the evolving dynamics of power in Asia and beyond as India emerges as a key player in the global tech landscape.

The interplay between the U.S. and China in AI innovation highlights India’s limited capacity to independently develop cutting-edge AI technologies. Experts note that AI is advancing toward a stage of recursive self-improvement, where systems autonomously enhance their capabilities. This technological leap could widen the gap between leading powers like the U.S. and China and middle-tier nations, leaving countries like India reliant on either American or Chinese AI technologies rather than creating comparable frontier models.

India has already signaled a tilt toward collaboration with the U.S. through its participation in Pax Silica, a U.S.-led coalition inaugurated earlier this year to safeguard AI supply chains. Among the 24 signatories, which include many traditional U.S. allies, India stands out as one of the few members from the BRICS grouping, alongside the United Arab Emirates. This membership underscores India’s longstanding approach of “strategic autonomy,” seeking partnerships without formal alliances that could constrain its sovereignty.

India’s engagement also extends to other groupings like the Quad—a security and economic partnership with the U.S., Japan, and Australia—while maintaining ties with Chinese-led organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. This balancing act reflects India’s effort to navigate geopolitical complexities while pursuing technological and strategic interests.

Despite ambitions to develop indigenous technological capabilities, India faces significant challenges. While the country boasts strengths in software services, chip design, advanced digital infrastructure, and a growing role in AI training data, it remains distant from leading AI innovators. The bulk of investments in India’s tech sector—amounting to roughly $67 billion from companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon—emanate from Western sources, reinforcing India’s alignment with the U.S. technology ecosystem.

Geopolitical tensions further discourage close ties with China. Ongoing border disputes, restrictions on equipment exports, and China’s strategic support for Pakistan contribute to a profound trust deficit. Experts argue that although India harbors skepticism about U.S. reliability—exacerbated by past erratic American policies—it views China with far greater mistrust.

India’s aspirations to function as an independent technological power are fueled by historic achievements in nuclear and space programs and the prominence of Indian-born leaders in major global tech firms. However, analysts caution that India’s path to technological modernization realistically requires deepened cooperation with the United States and its allies. Washington, in turn, must assure New Delhi that partnerships will be equitable and respectful of India’s autonomy, avoiding perceptions of dependency or control.

As the AI race accelerates, India’s foreign policy doctrine faces increasing pressure to evolve. The strategic calculus of balancing sovereignty with practical technology needs is likely to push New Delhi closer toward the Western camp, redefining regional alignments in the process.