Recent data from tanker-tracking organizations and statements from U.S. officials indicate a significant shift in control over oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. Central Command forces reportedly gaining the upper hand in the ongoing geopolitical contest with Iran.

Oil flow through the strategically vital waterway is nearing pre-conflict levels, according to figures from Kpler, which show a seven-day average of approximately 14.19 million barrels per day, approaching the baseline of 17.13 million barrels recorded prior to regional hostilities. The primary reduction in volume is attributed to Iranian exports being halted by a renewed U.S. naval blockade.

Efforts to maintain oil supplies to global markets have included the reactivation of the Saudi bypass pipeline and increased shipments from the port of Yanbu through the Red Sea, which together are helping mitigate disruptions caused by the Iranian blockade. These measures are intended to relieve pressure on Gulf allies and international customers while further isolating Iran economically.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted the tightening of financial restrictions on Iran’s trading partners, including measures aimed at the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Both countries have taken steps that include cutting trade ties and restricting Iranian banking transactions. Additionally, several regional countries have suspended air traffic with Iran, further limiting Tehran’s access to economic and logistical networks.

The Iranian economy is showing signs of strain amid these constraints. The national currency, the rial, recently hit a historic low, surpassing 2.5 million rials to the dollar. This marks a dramatic depreciation from 35,000 rials in 2018 and nearly 1.5 million in early 2026. The currency’s annual decline since the reimposition of the U.S. blockade has been approximately 140%, reflecting deepening economic distress linked to shrinking oil revenues and tightened sanctions.

Analysts such as Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies have supported the view that the U.S. has effectively established operational control over the Strait, citing direct reports from naval sources as evidence that commonly available open-source data have underestimated U.S. influence in the region.

Despite these developments, tensions remain high. Recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels were reported by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center, underscoring ongoing risks to maritime security. Market observers are anticipating possible escalation in the coming weeks, particularly with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

While Iran’s attempts to assert dominance over the Strait of Hormuz appear to be faltering, the country retains the capability to disrupt critical Gulf energy infrastructure, contributing to a persistent global diesel shortage and increased fuel prices. The strategic challenge for the United States and its allies will be sustaining pressure to leverage this tactical advantage toward broader goals, including addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the stability of the regime itself.