For more than two decades, immigration has been a deeply polarizing issue across Europe, with Spain standing out in recent years as the last major European Union country maintaining a clear pro-immigration stance. That stance now faces a critical test in Spain’s snap general election scheduled for November 29, as the far-right Vox party positions itself as a potential kingmaker poised to overturn current immigration policies it condemns as a betrayal.

Vox, which recent polls indicate could hold the balance of power, is campaigning aggressively against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government, accusing it of promoting uncontrolled migration largely through open border policies and a recent amnesty granting legal status to up to 1.2 million undocumented immigrants residing in Spain. The party’s leader, Santiago Abascal, has framed this amnesty as part of an alleged effort by Sánchez to replace ethnic Spaniards who do not support his Socialist party.

Vox’s platform calls for a radical rollback of Sánchez’s immigration legacy, advocating mass expulsions—or “remigration”—targeting unauthorized immigrants, including some legal residents. Abascal has publicly stated that the scale of deportations is irrelevant, whether it involves thousands or millions. The party further proposes creating a tiered social system that prioritizes native-born Spaniards over recent immigrants in access to welfare benefits and public services, a policy Abascal describes as common sense.

Experts classify Vox as part of Europe’s far-right populist family, noting its alignment with parties such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France’s Rassemblement National (RN), which also advocate for stricter immigration controls and repatriation. While Vox is unlikely to win a majority outright, it could play a decisive role in forming a government if the centre-right People’s Party (PP) fails to secure a majority. Polls place Vox at approximately 18-19% of the vote, suggesting gains that could significantly influence the next government’s agenda.

Between 2019 and 2026, Spain’s foreign-born population increased by approximately 3.5 million, reaching around 10 million—around one in five residents—according to national statistics. Sánchez credits immigrants with contributing to Spain’s status as one of the fastest-growing large economies in the developed world, although per capita income growth has been less robust.

Sánchez has warned that a coalition involving Vox would mean a regression on immigration and social policies, aiming to rally his left-wing supporters and moderate voters against what he describes as a backward shift. Conversely, Vox capitalizes on public concerns over housing shortages, strained social services, and rising costs of living, attributing these issues largely to immigration pressures.

The party’s rhetoric includes explicit hostility towards Muslim immigrants, especially from Morocco, whom it associates with welfare dependency and cultural conflict. Vox officials distinguish between Muslims generally and what they label “Islamism,” which they portray as a threat to Spanish cultural values. While cautious about overtly criticizing Latin American immigrants—who represent the largest group of both legal and illegal immigrants—Vox’s discourse increasingly centers on national priority policies that favor native Spaniards in access to benefits, a concept known as “welfare chauvinism.”

These policies are already being tested in several Spanish regions where Vox has entered coalition agreements with the PP. In these areas, “national priority” systems restrict certain welfare benefits and public services to those deemed legally and demonstrably connected to the region, a move critics argue is veiled discrimination against immigrants and even some Spanish nationals with recent ties abroad.

Business leaders in sectors such as construction emphasize immigrants’ importance to the economy and call for policy discussions that better link residency status to skills and qualifications, warning that blanket expulsions could harm key industries.

Political analysts view Vox’s trajectory as emblematic of broader European trends where far-right parties adopt both radical and strategic approaches to immigration issues, contrasting with counterparts like Marine Le Pen’s party in France, which has softened its tone.

As the election approaches, the outcome will determine whether Spain continues its recent inclusive approach or shifts toward more restrictive policies that could reshape immigration and social welfare in the country. Meanwhile, immigrants such as Luisa Quiñones, who gained legal status through the recent amnesty, express apprehension over their uncertain futures should Vox influence government policy.