The Burnham Bounce: Labour’s Poll Lead Grows Over Reform and Greens

By the Editorial Team · Saturday, August 1, 2026

Labour has surged ahead of Reform UK in recent polls following Andy Burnham’s appointment as Prime Minister, with a five-point lead attributed to his focus on cost of living measures and public services. This shift marks a notable change in voter sentiment and raises questions about whether Labour can maintain momentum ahead of the crucial October Budget and potential electoral challenges.

Labour has taken a lead over Reform UK in recent polling following Andy Burnham’s appointment as Prime Minister, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment since he replaced Sir Keir Starmer. Multiple polls conducted this week, including an exclusive survey by BMG Research, indicate that Labour holds a five-point advantage over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with 28 percent of respondents backing the party compared to 23 percent for Reform. The Conservatives are reported in third place with 20 percent, followed by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, both at 10 percent.

The polling results suggest the emergence of what is being described as the “Burnham bounce,” a surge in support for Labour not seen in over a year, as Reform UK had topped BMG polls for the previous 16 months. Analysts attribute Labour’s gains partly to Burnham’s early policy announcements, which have focused on addressing the cost of living crisis by pledging to cut electricity bills, cap bus fares at £2 in England, and reduce business rates for pubs and restaurants. Additional commitments have targeted social care and devolution, aiming to strengthen Labour’s appeal on a range of issues.

BMG Research director Rob Struthers indicated that Burnham is winning back voters from parties to Labour’s left, including the Greens, whose support has declined by three percentage points. Reform UK has seen a four-point drop, reportedly squeezed between Conservative gains and competition from Restore Britain, another party attracting some former Reform voters. The Conservative Party, under leader Kemi Badenoch, appears to have retained a larger portion of its 2024 voters compared to previous months.

Despite the positive polling for Labour, experts caution that the current momentum may be temporary. Historical examples of former prime ministers, such as Gordon Brown and Theresa May, who experienced initial surges before encountering electoral challenges, suggest potential difficulties ahead. Furthermore, Chancellor John Healey has set the date for the next Budget on 28 October, which is expected to be a critical moment for Burnham’s administration to maintain public support amid economic pressures.

Speculation regarding the possibility of an early general election has increased amid Labour’s polling advantage, but Burnham has dismissed calls for a snap poll. He emphasized his focus on stabilizing the country and stated that the public does not favor an immediate election. Supporting this, the BMG survey noted a decline in public support for an early ballot, with only 40 percent endorsing the idea, down from 49 percent the previous month.

The polling also indicates a rise in public optimism, with 33 percent of respondents reporting a more hopeful outlook since Burnham took office, compared to 17 percent who feel less optimistic. Whether this increase in confidence will translate into sustained electoral success for Labour remains to be seen as the government prepares to face the coming months.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.