BERLIN — The Biden administration’s 2022 authorization for Germany to build a factory producing Patriot air defense interceptors highlights the lengthy and complex process involved in expanding production of American missile systems abroad. Despite having approval for over a year, the German facility has yet to manufacture a single Patriot missile, illustrating challenges that could temper expectations for Ukraine, where leaders recently expressed optimism about quickly starting domestic Patriot production.
To date, only two U.S. allies—Germany and Japan—hold licenses to produce Patriot missiles independently. Neither has managed rapid scale-up, underscoring the technical and logistical hurdles accompanying such efforts. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz underscored ongoing European reliance on American weapons by announcing a deal to purchase U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles, signaling the difficulty of swiftly replacing imported defense systems with homegrown alternatives.
Japan obtained a license in 2005 amid concerns over North Korea’s expanding missile capabilities. Partnering with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces conducted successful tests of Patriot PAC-3 “hit-to-kill” interceptors three years later. The country now produces about 30 missiles annually, a figure achieved over nearly two decades and with considerable existing aerospace infrastructure. According to Jeffrey W. Hornung of the RAND Corporation, Japan’s licensing reflected a gradual evolution built on years of defense cooperation and trust.
Germany’s license, granted amid fears of Russian missile threats extending into Western Europe, was followed by a 2024 contract to produce as many as 1,000 interceptors for Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Romania. The German factory, located in Schrobenhausen, southern Germany, aims to begin production next year. However, initial output will likely focus on Allied demand before supporting Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials welcomed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a license to produce Patriot missiles domestically, but experts caution that immediate manufacturing capacity is unlikely. Anton Hofreiter, a German lawmaker and weapons specialist, noted that German and European allies must supply Ukraine with Patriots as rapidly as possible until domestic production is feasible. This necessity is heightened by depleted global Patriot inventories, driven by both the conflict in Ukraine and broader regional tensions, such as in Iran.
The production process involves coordinating about two dozen suppliers to manufacture complex components. Germany’s position benefits from existing expertise, including contracts to maintain U.S.-supplied Patriot systems prior to gaining its license, which has helped establish supplier relationships and manufacturing know-how. Ukraine, by contrast, is building its program amid active conflict and without a comparable industrial base or stockpile, a challenge highlighted by Hornung’s remark that “the plane has to be built while it’s flying.”
Japan’s sale of domestically produced Patriots back to the United States in 2023 further illustrates the tight global supply and demand balance. The combined difficulties faced by Japan and Germany offer a cautionary perspective on Ukraine’s ambitions to rapidly produce advanced air defense missiles during wartime conditions.