The recent European Central Bank (ECB) update on the global role of the euro highlighted a notable development involving the US dollar’s status in international reserves. For the first time, global central banks held more gold than US Treasury bonds in their reserve assets. By the end of 2025, gold accounted for 27 percent of global reserves, up from 20 percent the previous year, while US Treasuries declined from 25 percent to 22 percent over the same period. This shift coincides with a 64 percent surge in gold prices during the past year.

Despite these changes, analysts caution that predictions of the dollar’s demise remain exaggerated. The dollar’s share of total global reserves, when including all dollar-denominated assets, stood at 57 percent at the end of 2025, down from 64 percent a decade earlier. This broader measure reflects a gradual decline rather than a sudden collapse.

The movement away from dollar assets is uneven, influenced by geopolitical dynamics. For example, Russia has significantly reduced its holdings of dollar assets following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Conversely, some countries described as geopolitically distant from the United States have increased their dollar reserves.

In terms of trade invoicing, the dollar remains dominant. Estimates vary, but the share of global exports invoiced in dollars has remained relatively stable this century, at roughly 40 percent according to the ECB, and as high as 54 percent per the Atlantic Council. By contrast, China’s yuan accounts for only about 4 percent of export invoicing.

Other indicators underscore the dollar’s sustained prominence. Data from the Bank for International Settlements reveal that offshore dollar liabilities booked by banks outside the United States reached $14 trillion by the end of last year, nearly tripling from $5 trillion in 2000. Euro-denominated liabilities have also increased but to a lesser extent, doubling to approximately $3 trillion over the same period.

A critical factor underpinning the dollar’s global role is the network of dollar-denominated loans and obligations issued outside the United States, which the Federal Reserve supports through extensive currency swap lines with foreign central banks. This arrangement sustains international trust in the dollar’s liquidity and facilitates its widespread use. Experts suggest that a breakdown in this trust, not just shifts in reserve allocations, would more profoundly threaten the dollar’s supremacy.

While the recent changes in reserve compositions have symbolic value, they do not yet signal a fundamental shift away from the dollar. Instead, they may serve as an early indication that a broader evolution in the global monetary landscape, once considered a possibility, is increasingly viewed as inevitable over the longer term.